b. Kim’s department at a local department store has tracked the sales of a product over the last nine weeks. The demand can be seen in the table below. Period Demand 1 24 2 23 3 26 4 36 5 26 6 30 7 32 8 26 9 25 i. Forecast demand using exponential smoothing with an alpha of 0.3, and an initial forecast of 30.0 for period 2 to 9. ii. Use a 5-period moving average, forecast the demand up to period 9. iii. Using MAD, determine which forecasting technique is better.

1. Which of the following is indicative of the season of heaviest demand when seasonality is measured on a quarterly basis? a. Seasonal index = .75 b. Seasonal index = 1.0 c. Seasonal index = 1.25 d. Seasonal index = 3.1 Answer: 2. The forecast calculated at the end of period t for period t+k is always the same for any value of k if the time series has systematic variability. A) True B) False

- Sales of tablet computers at Ted Glickman's electronics store in Washington, D.C., over the past 10 weeks are shown in the table below: 6 10 Week 1 Demand 20 2 3 23 27 4 5 37 26 7 8 9 30 35 22 24 29 a) The forecast for weeks 2 through 10 using exponential smoothing with a = 0.55 and a week 1 initial forecast of 20.0 are (round your responses to two decimal places): Week 1 Demand 20 Forecast 20.0 2 3 23 27 4 37 5 26 6 30 7 35 8 22 9 24 10 29

A manager uses a trend equation plus quarterly relatives to predict demand. Quarter relatives areSR1 = .90, SR2 = .95, SR3 = 1.05, and SR4 = 1.10. The trend equation is: Ft= 10 + 5t. Over thepast nine quarters, demand has been as follows:Period, t 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9Demand 14 20 24 31 31 37 43 48 52Is the forecast performing adequately? Explain.

An electrical contractor’s records during the last five weeks indicate the number of job requests:Week       1    2    3   4    5Requests 20  22 18  21  22 Predict the number of requests for week 6 using each of these methods:a. Naiveb. A four-period moving averagec. Exponential smoothing with α = .30; use 20 for week 2 forecast

National Standard, Inc. sells radio frequency identification (RFID) tags. Monthly demand for a seven-month period is reported below:     Sales (1000 units) Forecast Observation Month Yt Ft 1 February 19   2 March 18   3 April 15   4 May 20   5 June 18   6 July 22   7 August 20   8 September    ? Use Excel to plot the data and forecast September sales using the following methods: The naïve forecast A three-month moving average Exponential smoothing with a smoothing coefficient of α = 0.2, assuming a February forecast of 19 A 3-month weighted moving average, with weights 0.60, 0.3, and 0.1. With 0.6 applied to the most recent past.

a) Apply moving average and exponential smoothing to generate two forecasts of the closing price for the entire data period. Set appropriate values for the forecast parameters (e.g., k and a). b) Plot and compare the actual and predicted data values you calculated in part (b). Provide one chart that displays actual, moving average, and exponential smoothing lines. Hint: Calculate MSE, MAD, or MAPE to compare the different forecasts. Develop your own forecast from scratch. Do NOT use Excel’s Data Analysis or Forecast Sheets.

Use simple exponential smoothing with a -0.8 to forecast electric scooter sales at Guelph- Humber Inc. for July. Assume that the forecast for May was for 45 electric scooters. Round your answer to 1 decimal Electric Scooter Sales Month May 42 June 47 July 45 August 40 Weekly demand for medical masks for the last five weeks at Chopper Drug Store has been as follows: 92, 96, 100, 100 and 102 (listed from the oldest to most recent). Suppose a naive forecast was used to forecast demand. What would the MAD be for this situation? Enrollment in a particular Yoga class at Guelph Fitness Centre for the last five months has been 80, 86, 88, 88 and 90(listed from the oldest to most recent). Suppose a two-month mov average was used to forecast enrollment. What would the MSE be for this situation?

4. The sales (in millions of dollars) for an 18-month period are as follows. Month Sales Month Sales 1 600 600 775 10 775 3 600 11 600 4 650 12 575 700 13 625 800 14 650 550 15 600 8 775 a. Compare a three-month moving average forecast with an exponential smoothing forecast. Use a = 0.1. Which provides the better forecasts based on MSE? b. Find the forecast for the next month using the best forecast method. 2.

Please help with the correct answers in details:   Centerville Bikes and Stuff (CBS) sells motorcycles and accessories. The number of helmets sold by CBS per week for the past six weeks follows. Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 Value 19 12 17 10 18 15 Using the naive method (most recent value) as the forecast for the next week, compute the following measures of forecast accuracy. (a) mean absolute error MAE =  (b) mean squared error MSE =  (c) mean absolute percentage error (Round your answer to two decimal places.) MAPE =  % (d) What is the forecast for week 7?