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- 28. Shoreline Park in Mountain View, California, has kept close tabs on the number of patrons using the park since its opening in January 1993. For the first six months of 2013, the following figures were recorded: Month Number of Patrons Month Number of Patrons April May June 640 January February March 133 183 1,876 2,550 285 a. Draw a graph of these six data points. Assume that January February fit of the data. Estimate the slope and intercept from your graph. period 1, period 2, and so on. Using a ruler, “eyeball" the best straight-line +4.33 Storrs Cycles has just started selling the new Cyclone mountain bike, with monthly sales as shown in the table. First, co-owner Bob Day wants to forecast by exponential smoothing by initially setting February's forecast equal to January's sales with a = .1. Co-owner Sherry Snyder wants to use a three-period moving average. %3D BOB'S ERROR SHERRY'S ERROR SALES BOB SHERRY JANUARY 400 FEBRUARY 380 400 MARCH 410 APRIL 375 MAY a) Is there a strong linear trend in sales over time? b) Fill in the table with what Bob and Sherry each forecast for May and the earlier months, as relevant. c) Assume that May's actual sales figure turns out to be 405. Complete the table's columns and then calculate the mean absolute deviation for both Bob's and Sherry's methods. d) Based on these calculations, which method seems more accurate? PXMorning and evening temperature for four days is given below Day Morning Evening Monday 20 25 Tuesday 35 44 Wednesday 28 43 Thursday 29 48 Estimate the seasonal components for Morning and Evening assuming additive seasonal decomposition model with no trend.
- In a study entitled How Undergraduate Students Use Credit Cards, it was reported that undergraduate students have a mean credit card balance of $3,053. This figure was an all-time high and had increased 41% over the previous five years. Assume that a current study is being conducted to determine if it can be concluded that the mean credit card balance for undergraduate students has continued to increase compared to the report. Based on previous studies, use a population standard deviation o $1,400. a. State the null and alternative hypotheses. Но: и - Select your answer - ♥ 3,053 Ha: - Select your answer v 3,053 b. What is the p-value for a sample of 160 undergraduate students with a sample mean credit card balance of $3,168? If your answer is zero enter "0". z value (to 2 decimals) p-value (to 4 decimals) c. Using a 0.01 level of significance, what is your conclusion? - Select your answer - Conclude that student mean credit card debt is - Select your answer - v than $3,053. Check My…In the Atlanta area, the number of daily calls for the repair of Speedy copy machines has been recorded as follows: October Calls 1 92 2 127 3 106 4 165 5 125 6 111 7 178 8 97 Prepare a three-period moving-average forecast for periods 4-8. What is the error on each day? Prepare a three-period weighted moving average forecast for periods 4-8 using weights of w1=.5, w2=.3, w3=.2 Which of the two forecasts is better? (Use CFE to calculate the better method)Sales of Cool-Man air conditioners have grown steadily during the past 5 years: (Round your answers to 2 decimal places.) Forecast Forecast Year Sales (a = 0.30) (a 0.90) 1 450 410.0 410.00 495 3 518 470.60 490.10 4 563 5 584 495.20 6 ? 1. The sales manager had predicted, before the business started, that year 1's sales would be 410 air conditioners. Using exponential smoothing with a weight of a = 0.30, complete the Forecast column to develop forecasts for years 2 through 6. What is the MADa=0.30 ? 2. Using exponential smoothing with a weight of a = 0.90, develop forecasts for years 2 through 6 by completing the Forcast column in the table. What is the MAD-0,90 ? 3. Using the trend projection method, develop a forecasting model to project sales for year 6. 2.
- (8 points) Infoworks is a large computer discount store that sells computers and ancillary equipment and software in the town where a State University is located. Infoworks has collected historical data on computer sales and printer sales for the past 10 years, as follows: Develop a linear regression model relating printer sales to computer sales in order to forecast printer demand in year 11 if 1,300 computers are sold. Develop a moving-average model with n = 3 to forecast printer demand in year 11 Develop an exponential smoothing model with α = .30 to forecast printer demand in year 11. Compare your result in a, b, c. Which model would you choose and why?Solve the following:1. Sales of Volkwagen’s popular Beetle have grown steadily at autodealership in Nevada during the past 5 years (see table below). The sales manager had predicted before the new model was introduced that first-year sales would be 410 VWs. Using exponential smoothing with a weight of α= .30, develop forecast for years 2 through 6.Year Sales1 450 4102 4953 5184 5635 5846?2. The following data come from regression line projections:ForecastPeriod 1234Forecast Values 410419428435Actual values 406423423440Compute the MAD and MSE.17. The manager of a utility company in the Texas panhandle wants to develop quarterly forecasts of power loads for the next year. The power loads are seasonal, and the data on the quarterly loads in megawatts (MW) for the past 4 years are as follows: Quarter 1 2 3 Year 1 103.5 126.1 144.5 166.1 Year 2 94.7 116.0 137.1 152.5 Year 3 118.6 141.2 159.0 178.2 The manager estimates the total demand for the next year at 600 MW. Use the multiplicative seasonal method to develop the forecast for each quarter. Year 4 109.3 131.6 149.5 169.0
- The following table gives the number of pints of type A blood used at Damascus Hospital in the past 6 weeks: a) The forecasted demand for the week of October 12 using a 3-week moving average = Week Of August 31 September 7 September 14 September 21 September 28 October 5 pints (round your response to two decimal places). Pints Used 345 389 408 381 371 374The total number of absents students in the four (4) school terms for a matric class at a high school over a 4-year period are recorded and tabulated as shown below. Year Term Number of absents 1 50 2018 2 38 16 4 1 67 2019 2 40 12 4 8 1 128 2020 95 37 4 20 1 149 2021 2 133 3 78 4 55 Calculate the first centered moving average for this time series data. A. 27.25 В. 29.375 С. 31.5 D. 323. Quarterly sales of a car dealer exhibit an almost constant mean over time, but sales fluctuate depending on the quarter of the year (exhibits seasonality). Quarter Q1 - Spring Q2 - Summer Q3 - Fall Q4 - Winter Mean Year 1 32 74 53 22 45.25 Year 2 30 71 63 15 44.75 Year 3 35 83 45 19 45.5 (a) Using three years' worth of quarterly data that is provided, develop a set of seasonal factors that could be used to forecast car sales (b) Forecast car sales in each of the four quarters (Q1-Q4) of the following year (Year 4), using these seasonal factors.