. This problem might require thought. A lamp holds 3 bulbs. There are two kinds of bulbs, short-lived red ones with mean lifetime 1 day, and long-lived green ones with mean lifetime 3 days. All bulb lifetimes have exponential distributions independent of each other. Whenever a green light bulb burns out, it is replaced by a red one. Whenever a red light bulb burns out, it is replaced by a green one. Define variables and write equations that, if solved, would yield the probability distribution of the number of green light bulbs at a random moment when a bulb has just

. This problem might require thought. A lamp holds 3 bulbs. There are two kinds of bulbs, short-lived red ones with mean lifetime 1 day, and long-lived green ones with mean lifetime 3 days. All bulb lifetimes have exponential distributions independent of each other. Whenever a green light bulb burns out, it is replaced by a red one. Whenever a red light bulb burns out, it is replaced by a green one. Define variables and write equations that, if solved, would yield the probability distribution of the number of green light bulbs at a random moment when a bulb has just

A First Course in Probability (10th Edition)

10th Edition

ISBN:9780134753119

Author:Sheldon Ross

Publisher:Sheldon Ross

Chapter1: Combinatorial Analysis

Section: Chapter Questions

Problem 1.1P: a. How many different 7-place license plates are possible if the first 2 places are for letters and...

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From 2000 through 2009, the population of State A grew more slowly than that of State B. Models that represent the populations of the two states are given by P = 37.5t + 6075 State A P = 168.2t + 5138 State B where P is the population (in thousands) and t represents the year, with t = 0 corresponding to 2000. Use the models to estimate when the population of State B first exceeded the population of State A. (Round your answer to the nearest year.)
Can gender, educational level, and age predict the odds that someone votes for a particular candidate in the election? Over 1500 voters were selected, and data were col-lected on the highest year of school completed, their age, and their gender. We wish to t a logistic regression model: log(1 p p ) = 0 + 1Age + 2Education + 3Gender, where p is the binomial probability that a person voted for candidate Johnson, and gender is coded as the indicator for female. The R output is given below. parameter df estimate s.e z p-value (Intercept) 1 .1119 .3481 .321 .748 Age 1 .0020 .0032 .613 .54 Education 1 -.0100 .0184 .547 .585 Gender 1 .4282 .1040 4.117 .000 Null deviance: 255.95 on 1499 degrees of freedom Residual deviance: 220.80 on 1496 degrees of freedom Write down the tted logistic regression and give a short summary about the data analysis . Calculate the probability of voting for Johnson for a…
6. A small company can employ 3 workers. Each worker independently stays on the job for an exponentially distributed time with a mean of one year and then quits. When a worker quits, it takes the company an exponentially distributed time with a mean of 1/10 of a year to hire a replacement for that worker (independently of how long it takes to replace other workers). If the company takes in $1000 per day in revenue when it has 3 workers, $800 per day when it has 2 workers, and $500 per day when it has 0 or 1 workers, what is the company's long-run average daily revenue?
Consider the following estimated model, where the dependent variable is the log of the hourly wage: log(wage) = 0.417 - 0.238female + 0.17educ + 0.0232 exper - 0.00058exper? +0.0295tenure – 0.00059tenure? female 1 if the person is female, and 0 if the person is male educ = level of education, in years exper = level of expertise, in years tenure = duration of tenure, in years Given that the above regression model has 313 observations, then its degrees of freedom is equal to For the same levels of education, expertise, and tenure, women earn exactly % less compared to men, holding other factors fixed.
A golfer practices different parts of their game for hours. Specifically, the golfer practices:(1) putting, (2) their short game, and (3) their iron game. The amount of time spent on each partof their game is exponentially distributed. If the golfer is practicing their putting, they will alwaysswitch to their short game after an average of 30 minutes. When the golfer practices their short game,they do so for an average of 45 minutes, and then switches to putting with probability 0.6 or to theiriron game with probability 0.4. When they practice their iron game, they do so for an average of 60minutes. After practicing their iron game, the golfer will switch to putting or to their short game withequal probability.(a) Draw the CTMC rate diagram, clearly label your states and transition rates (qij ’s)(b) Find the transition rates out of the states (vi’s) and transition probabilities (Pij ’s).(c) Find the limiting probabilities (make sure to write out the balance equations).(d) In the long…
edo exercises 17 and 18 in section 8.1 of your textbook, about the small animal who lives in an area with woods and meadows, using the following data:If the animal is in the woods on one observation, then it is twice as likely to be in the woods as the meadows on the next observation. If the animal is in the meadows on one observation, then it is three times as likely to be in the meadows as the woods on the next observation.Assume that state 1 is being in the meadows and that state 2 is being in the woods.(1) Find the transition matrix for this Markov process. (2) If the animal is initially in the woods, what is the probability that it is in the woods on the next three observations? (3) If the animal is initially in the woods, what is the probability that it is in the meadow on the next three observations?
Consider the logit regression log(odds(QualExam) = ßo + B, • ParEduc + B, • Awards. where QualExam is a binary variable that indicates passing the exam if equal to 1, and failing the exam if 0, ParEduc indicates the parents' education level, and Awards is a binary variable that indicates having experience of obtaining award(s) if equal to 1, and not having experience if 0. Given the parents' average education level unchanged, the odds ratio is expected to be _ for an individual with awards to pass the exam comparing to those without awards. For an individual without awards and the parents' education level of 4, the estimated probability of passing the exam is approximately_. ParEduc Awards Intercept -10.53 2.98 0.48 O A. 0.48; 80%. O B. 1.616; 80%. O C. 1.616; 4%. O D. 0.48; 4%.
2. This question is about logistic regression. The outcome variable is success (1=success, 0=failure), and we have two groups of observations: group A and group B. a. Assume that on average, the odds of success is x for group A members. What is the average probability of success (p) for group A? Please write down p as a function of x. Given an x, is there a unique p? b. Assume that on average, the odds ratio for success of group A over group B is 2. The average probability of success for group A is pA and that the average probability of success for group B is pg. Is the set of Paand pg unique? c. The logistic regression of success ~ group (link=logit) returns a coefficient estimate of -1.3863 for the dummy variable group (1=group A, 0=group B). Interpret this coefficient estimate.
An engineer designs a circuit, seen below. In this system, if the first component fails, the functionality moves immediately to the second component and so on. The system only fails when the fifth component fails. Each component has a lifetime that is exponentially distributed with λ = 0.01 and components fail independently of one another. Define A, to be the length of time component i lasts. Let Y = the time at which the new system fails. Given 2 لنا 5 A-Exponential (0.01) Y=A1+A2+A3+A4+A5 1. Find the probability that this new system will last fewer than 50 hours.