Soc 727-the Theory of Demographic Transition and Its Applicability to Developing Countries

In developed countries the birth and infant mortality rate is lower than developing countries. With the developing countries having a higher birth rate they also have a higher infant mortality rate. It is difficult to predict the earth’s population growth because of the different stages a country might be in, or how fast they move from one to another. Stage one is preindustrial, this is when the birth rate is high but so is the death rate so the population is low. Stage two is the transitional stage where the birth rate is still high but health care has gotten better so the death rate has decreased and the population is skyrocketing. Stage three is the industrial stage this is when the birth rate is still increasing even though the death rate has stayed the same making the population still increase. In the final stage postindustrial the birth rates are very low because of birth control and people desiring smaller families. The death rate is still how and the population slowly

Developed nations such as the United States, Canada, or in Western Europe tend to have __________fertility rates and __________ mortality rates.

To alter the request for the study on how the world populace changes after some time it is helpful to look on the rate of progress. Before year of 1800 the world populace development rate never surpassed 0.5%, while over the span of the initial fifty years of the twentieth century it went from only 0.8% to 2.1% which would be considered as the most noteworthy yearly development rate ever.

Demographic transition is the process by which a nation/country moves from high birth rate and high death rates to low birth and low death rates as the growth population in the interim (Weeks, 2005). Some of the nations that have gone through this transitions are; Canada, Germany, United States and England. The demographic transition to an industrialized society is harmful to the environment. Industrialized countries also have the largest ecological and carbon footprint comparative to developing/non-industrialized nations. Nevertheless, demographic transitions have some notable advantages. Countries that have gone through demographic transitions have low birth and death rates. Citizens in

However the Demographic Transition model also has its weaknesses some weakness would include the fact that the demographic transition model does not include the role of the government, some governments may put antenatal and prenatal operations in place to encourage the decrease or to increase the birth rate within these countries, therefore countries like China that are antenatal and have the one child policy put in place and countries like the UK which are prenatal and offer child benefits may show fluctuation of the birth rate in stages it should be decreasing or increasing in. Further more In stage four, the UK experienced a post-war baby boom where the birth rate should be steadily decreasing – this shows that the demographic transition model does not include the impacts of wars, natural hazards or migration either.

The demographic transition is a three-stage model of population growth in Europe. In the first stage there is a stable population because birth and death rates are both high. The second stage happens as mortality rates begin to slowly decline, but birth rates stay high. When this stage happens, there is fast population growth. During the third stage, the population is more stable as both birth and death rates are low and are more or less balanced. In more recent years, a fourth stage as been brought on by Anti-Malthusians. During this stage, population shrinkage occurs because the deaths begin to outnumber the births. Europe provides a great example to the theory of demographic transition. After speedy population growth of stage two, Europe settled at stage three with a stable population. It is currently in stage four with a shrinking population. In most European nations there are lesser births than deaths which could ultimately create other social problems.

The purpose of this report is to analyze five varying countries’ populations from over the years and compare their process to the Demographic Transition Model. By comparing each country with the model and using their population pyramid graphs, the goal is to discover how precisely and where the countries fit.

The demographic transition model is valid when applied to Djibouti, which is a lower developed stage 2 country, because of the economic, social, and health factors found on the human development index.

The demographic transition in western Europe between the mid-19th century and the mid-20th century dealt with a sudden, gradual drop in death rates. This was around the time of the Industrial Revolution, and this was mostly due in part to there being more improvement on medical knowledge, public cleanliness, and also increase in food supply. Because growth rates (not birth rate) were steadily rising to the top, this led to a population boom (much like the baby boom of the mid-40s to mid-60s). This in turn also led to a huge emigration to the western hemisphere at the time. However, this wasn’t the only trend observed during this time; just as much as death rates were increasingly dropping, birth rates too began to drop as well.

A demographic transition is the transition from a populace with high conception rates and passing rates to a populace that is steady, yet with a much lower level of conception and demise rates.

In Stage three, the total population is increasing at a greater rate than in the previous stages. The birth rates and death rates are decreasing because of many factors in society, but the most prevalent factor is due to the increase use of birth control.

Demographic transition involves the changes a less industrialized country undergoes regarding birth rates and death rates from being an industrialized country. The change implies the reduction of birth and mortality rates from a less industrialized country into an industrialized country with reduced birth and death rates. Several countries, especially the European countries, exemplify this mode of transition in their historical information. Besides, the changes involved in demographic transition filters down to the environment in the long-run. The surrounding environment suffers from the expanded industrialization and due to the demographic transition (Smout, 2009).

In figure 1 and figure 2 above, I have ranked the countries that I have chosen in order from highest to lowest total fertility rate (TFR) and maternal mortality rate (MMR). The data shows that the TFR is congruous with the MMR within most of the countries. The

But the death rate exceeds the birth rate, which triggers the population increasing very slowly or almost stable. In this stage, birth rate becomes high due to less use of contraception and sterilization. Most of the people do survive in agriculture where the children are considered as economic assets and so people are encouraged to get many children. Similarly death rate becomes high due to diseases, natural calamities, wars, etc. Infant death rate is also found very high. Because of poor health facilities provided by the state to the people, lack of clean water and sanitation and food shortage, health of the people will be weak so that the people will depart the life in high numbers. Before 1920, China and India were at this stage (Raj, H. 2003). This stage is generally found in the countries where people depend on agriculture as a main source of surviving. At present, the countries like Nigeria, Ethiopia, Tanzania, Angola, etc. are passing through this stage (Raj, H.2003)

Next, there is Declining Growth, in which a country’s pyramid is shaped much like a diamond. The middle section bulges the most in terms of population, and youth as well as elderly are in lower numbers. Nations with negative growth population most likely have birth rates that are too low. Nevertheless, these countries are often developed and posses long life expectancy, balanced, secure government systems, and quality health care. Japan is a clear example of being in this state (shown left).