STRATEGIC ESTIMATE OF THE CAUCASUS REGION
• Non-US/Multinational Policy Goals, include NATO expansion in size and influence). Relations with Russia. Create an independent Kurdish nation.
• US Domestic Considerations are the oil pipeline through the Southern Caucasus Region and the Black Sea for trade access.
• Ahurastan interests include having international recognition as a sovereign nation and they want 25% share of the offshore oil reserves of the Caspian Sea.
• Non-State SAPA (South Azeri People’s Army) (Military) “traditionalist insurgents” objectives aimed against GOAZ (Government of Azerbaijan). Supported by Ahurastan.
• Non-State SAPP(South Azeri Peoples Party) (Political) “traditionalist insurgents”
• Non-State Free Karabakh
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Ahurastan openly supports this insurgency. In 2017 SAPA trained and equipped a fundamentals regime in Iran began attacking Azerbaijani army units.
b. The FKM has interfered with Azerbaijani police effort to maintain order in the region and is a growing problem. In November 2019 the FKM who is funded by GOAZ attacked an Armenian Nuclear Power station at Metsamor, 20 kilometer south of Yerevan.
c. The Caspian Sea is among five states and remains a source of tension. More than 15 rounds of negotiations have failed to reach an agreement by all parties. Azerbaijan, Ahurastan, and Iran claim the Araz-Alov-Sharg oil field in the Caspian Sea.
d. Russia has enforced a naval blockade of all maritime traffic since October 2017. North of 42 degrees north latitude in the Caspian Sea, while expanding oil exploration there. Russian and Kazakhstan assert their claims over the territorial sea area.
2. CURRENT STATUS. Azerbaijan’s rail system from Georgia to Baku has been upgraded by U.S. Army Reserve engineer units. Road and water distribution networks along Kura River valley have been over-hauled. Several regional airfields have been paved and enlarged.
a. Ahurastan seceded from Iran in 2018-2019. The Ahurastan objective in supporting SAPP creates conflicts in the region.
b. Armenia’s primary domestic issue is a reliable source of energy to sustain its
The Gulf houses half of the world’s oil reserves and a third of the natural gas. The Gulf States still continue to supply the international markets with a significant amount of the hydrocarbons. The stability of the region is crucial for the stability in the global oil markets. The Gulf also hosts one of the most strategically and important choke points in global trade, The Straits of Hormuz, which moves about 35% of the global seaborne oil, natural gas and other trade goods.
• US Domestic Considerations are the oil pipeline through the Southern Caucasus Region and the Black Sea for trade access.
“Because of its strategic and commercial importance, the Bosphorus Strait has played a significant role in the world history” (Kayaalp 9). The Bosphorus Strait was best known for its oil
Azerbaijan is a small country in Southwest Asia about the equivalent size of Maine. Georgia, Armenia, Russia and Iran border Azerbaijan and are in a vital part geographically that is regarded for natural petroleum resources. Exporting these resources have been increasing lucrative for Azerbaijan’s economy. However, in the past decade there has been an ongoing progression in economic reform to help Azerbaijan come from
Petroleum politics have been an increasingly important aspect of diplomacy since the rise of the Petroleum industry in the middle east in the early 20th century.
First, the laws and political hurdles in Russia (and most countries) take significant time to sort out and bypass. In Russia, it is necessary to have political connections in order to even gain access to the oil markets. These relationships take significant time to build. Also, once a firm established political support, it needed to find a site with enough oil to make it worthwhile to build operations. The testing process to find a well is also a lengthy process. Next, the drilling and pipelines are built and the oil is retrieved, treated, and transported to the market or storage. This process is also very time consuming. As a result of these factors, firms interested in gaining access to these regions often wait many years before they become established producers of oil products. It takes even more years to be profitable. Therefore, by gaining early entry into the Russian oil market, a foreign firm can gain many strong years of prosperity and growth. <p>
Saudi Arabia and Iran are two countries that sit on opposite sides of the Sunni/Shiite divide, which can be argued as being the most prominent issue the Middle East faces today. Saudi Arabia is predominantly known to be a Sunni state, while Iran is largely inhabited by Shia Muslims. Both countries aspire to be the hegemonic powers of the region. Ethnically, Iran is known to be a Persian land, unlike Saudi Arabia that is known to be in the heart of the Arab world. These two countries are separated by the Arabian Gulf and throughout the twentieth century and up until today, the relationship between the two countries has been notoriously contentious. Within the past few years especially relationships between the two states have been very fragile with Saudi Arabia ending diplomatic ties early in 2016. The two states are strained over many issues of which are, interpretations of Islam, oil export policy and hegemonic regional leadership.
Abkhazia, located between Europe and Asia, is known as a separatist state. Separatism is when a smaller group separates from a larger group. Though they are mostly independent from each other now, Abkhazia’s history of autonomy from Georgia has been on-and-off. Wars and conflicts in the past have changed their relations numerous times, by force and by choice. In 1008, Abkhazia
Conflict over energy resources—and the wealth and power they create—has become an increasingly prominent feature for geopolitics particularly in the Middle East . The discovery of oil in the late nineteenth century added a dimension to the region as major outside states powers employed military force to protect their newly acquired interests in the Middle East. The U.S.’s efforts to secure the flow of oil have led to ever increasing involvement in the Middle East region’s political affairs and ongoing power struggles. By the end of the twentieth century, safeguarding the flow of oil from the Persian Gulf had become one of the most important functions of the U.S. military establishment. The close relationship between the United States and the Saudi royal family was formed in the final months of World War II, when U.S. leaders sought to ensure preferential access to Saudi petroleum. The U.S. link with Saudi Arabia and other countries in the region has demonstrated to be greatly beneficial to both parties, yet it has also led to ever deepening U.S. involvement in regional politics.
Russia is touched in many places by several large bodies of water. The Barents and White Seas in the far northwestern section of Russia are both important bodies of water for Russia as far as trading goes. As large as Russia is, it is mostly landlocked, making the Barents Sea very important for trading in large cities such as Arkangelsk. The Baltic Sea is another important body of water, as the large trading port of St. Petersburg is located on the coast of The Baltic. On the eastern coast of Russia, all of the larger cities, such as Vlakivostok, are
The invasion of Ukraine caused the interest of non-state actors, key individuals, international governmental organizations,
The Caspian Sea region has long been one of the richest in the world for fossil fuels. Azerbaijan was an early power in oil, for example. The Soviet Union's vigorous defense of the region at Stalingrad not only kept the oil out of the hands of the Axis powers, but it secured the region's hydrocarbon resources for Soviet development. During the Soviet era, fields in what are today the independent nations of Russia, Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan were developed. After independence, Kazakhstan has retained and upgraded the Soviet-era infrastructure in order to develop its oil and natural gas industries.
The main component is the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline, which is a dedicated crude oil pipeline system that extends from the Azeri-Chirag- Guneshli (ACG) through Azerbaijan and Georgia to a terminal at Ceyhan on the Mediterranean coast of Turkey, bypassing the environmentally sensitive Black Sea and the Turkish Straits. The pipeline, which has a capacity of 1 million barrels per day, and at 1760 kilometers is the second longest of its kind in the world. The first cargo of oil, which had travelled through the BTC pipeline to Ceyhan, has been loaded onto a tanker on 4 June 2006. As of 15 October 2012, over 1.5 billion barrels of Azeri oil was loaded to tankers from Ceyhan and shipped to international markets. Republic of Turkey Ministry of Foreign Affairs. (2014).
The Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan has been an active terrorist group in Central Asia since 1991. Before 1991, it was not structured and consisted of different extremist’s small groups, in particular the Adalat group. Its original goals were to overthrow the government of Uzbekistan, in particular Uzbekistan’s President Karimov and to establish an Islamic Caliphate in Central Asian countries. After the United States of America’s invasion of Afghanistan that followed the September 11, 2001 attacks in New York and Washington, the IMU reallocated to the borders in Afghanistan and Pakistan. During this time, Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan’s leaders were killed, Juma Namangani in November 2001 and Tahir Yuldashev, in August 2009. Despite changes within the group, they continued to operate in and around South Waziristan, Pakistan and Afghanistan, against Coalition Forces. Today, the IMU takes the form of a decentralized network that has become unpredictable, making it hard to target. Even though it is displaced from their original areas of operations, the IMU continues to persevere. There is a risk in the future that the IMU will thrive and pose a danger with its new allegiance to the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant.
After declaring independence from the USSR, and still financially distressed after the end of the Nagorno-Karabakh War in May 1994, the government of Azerbaijan, then headed by current President Ilham Aliyev’s father Heydar Aliyev, opened its numerous oil fields in an agreement with several transnational oil corporations in a contract known as the “Contract of the Century.” This contract, passed only 7 months after the end of the war, required the agreeing oil corporations to invest heavily in developing and modernizing the Azeri oil industry. Azerbaijan’s role as an oil producer was critical to these Western countries, helping them reduce their reliance on Russian or Middle Eastern oil production.