Assignment #1: The International Financial Environment.
Explain how the international trade flows should initially adjust in response to the changes in inflation (holding exchange rates constant). Explain how the international capital flows should adjust in response to the changes in interest rates (holding exchange rates constant).
International trade flows are the exchange of goods and services for money between different countries. It is referred to as sales which cross juridical borders. Inflation is a rise in the general level of prices of goods and services in an economy over a period of time. When the price levels rises, each unit of currency buys fewer goods and services. Exchange rates between two currencies specify how
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Because the interest rates are expected to decline, I would assume the capital flows will decrease to the UK. Since the US interest rates are expected to rise, capital flows to the US will increase. However, the inflation rates implies that the US purchase more British goods and will sells less goods to the UK due to the changes in prices in the two countries. Since Mesa believes that capital flows are more important, they believe the pound will depreciate in the future. Mesa believes international capital flows shift in response to changing interest rate differentials. Is there any reason why the changing interest rate differentials in this example will not necessarily cause international capital flows to change significantly? Explain.
Because there is upward pressure on the pound some investors may anticipate an appreciation. This may discourage British investors from attempting to capitalize on US higher interest rates. If the uncertainty about future exchange rates discourages British capital flows to US, there would be no reason to anticipate the pound to depreciate.
Based on your answer to question 2, how would Mesa’s cash flows be affected by the expected exchange rate movements? Explain.
Mesa’s cash flows would be negatively affected because the pounds received by Mesa would convert to a smaller amount of dollars if the pound weakened.
Based on your answer to question 4, should Mesa consider hedging its
* The recent devaluation of Pound Sterling (£1) against the US Dollar ($1.5) means, Pret spend more money trading globally, compared to when the Pound Sterling (£1) much stronger than the US Dollar ($2). This will affect their annual profits or is likely to lead to unethical trading as they look for the cheapest sources to get their raw materials.
On the other hand, the peso devaluation will not have that much of a positive effect on Farmington (Antilles) N.V. as the peso depreciates relative to the USD. The result is the subsidiary being negatively impacted as the USD/peso exchange rate is rising, as they convert revenue earned in pesos to USD to deposit into U.S. bank accounts. This facility had almost 4 million MXN receivables at the end of the year. The 1994 average exchange rate is 3.5 MXN/USD, where these 4 million MXNs would equate to approximately 1.14 million USD. When the exchange rate values the devalued peso at 5.0 MXN/USD, these 4 million MXNs are only equal to 0.80 million USDs, showing a loss of more than 300,000 USDs. When the exchange rate changes from 4.0 to 5.0 MXN/USD, we can see the loss the company would experience, and thus the negative impact on this facility.
Regardless to that when UK is in a recession the sterling is weak which means that overseas visitor can get more pounds for their money and would find UK much more cheaper which encourage inbound visitor to visit the UK. A recession
Official interest rate changes will also influence asset prices. For example, bond prices are inversely influenced by long-term interest rates. Finally, the official interest rate will also affect the exchange rate which the paper defines as “the relative price of domestic and foreign money” (George et. al, n.d.). When the official interest rate rises, domestic currency (the GBP) will see appreciation making investors want to invest in pounds. Another key point is that with changes in the exchange rate, there will also be a change in the value of domestic and foreign exports and imports. Finally, a change in the official interest rate can also affect people’s expectations and confidence in the economy. For example, some may believe that an increase in interest rates is a signal that the MPC thinks that the economy is expanding thus making further growth likely or, a contradictory interpretation may be that the MPC thinks that the MPC may need to slow growth in order to control inflation (George, n.d).
Boral Group has been exposed to changes in interest rate, foreign exchange rates and commodity prices from its activities. Transactions in foreign currencies must be translated at the foreign exchange rate ruling at the date of the transaction. (Boral Limited, 2010) According to the notes of Boral Limited, the sensitivity analysis is used in adjusting the interest rate and currency risks in order to prevent the changes arising from changes of the interest rate and the currency rate from making an impact on the consolidated earnings. For example, at 30
Given the nature of its business, Jaguar is faced with three types of exchange rate exposure (1) Transaction, (2) Translation and (3) Economic . Transaction exposures arise whenever the firm commits (or is contractually obligated) to make or receive a payment at a future date denominated in a foreign currency. Translation exposures arise from accounting based changes in consolidated financial statements caused by a change in exchange rates. In this case we primarily focus on the Economic exposure -also known as Operating exposure or Competitive exposure- of Jaguar.
The Bank of England could purchase pounds by selling dollars in order to shift the demand curve for pounds and the Fed could shift the demand curve by buying the pounds. If the British choose to purchase more of U.S. goods and services, the supply curve for pounds increases, and the equilibrium exchange rate for the pound (in terms of dollars) falls to, say, $3. Under the terms of the Bretton Woods Agreement, Britain and the United States would be required to intervene in the market to bring the exchange rate back to the rate fixed in the agreement, $4. The fixed exchange rate systems offer the advantage of predictable currency values—when they are working. In order for the fixed exchange rates to work, the countries participating in them must maintain domestic economic conditions that will keep equilibrium currency values close to the fixed rates.
dollar to devaluate, which means the deliberate downward adjustment in the exchange rate because it is too high compared to China’s yuan and Germany’s euro. However, the tactics and policies President Trump is trying to introduce are causing it to revaluate or change upward in currency’s value. Investors are still investing in the dollar because they see less translation risk, or the impact of exchange rate changes on a firm’s consolidated financial statements, because Trump’s planned policies have a good chance of increasing the dollar. The high U.S. dollar will cause domestic manufacturing costs to increase causing less product demand from foreign countries. This economic risk, which is the extent to which a firm’s future international earning power is affected by changes in exchange rates, will cause job loss because companies will not be able to pay workers the same with raised
If for example, we assume that Netflix charges its U.S. customers 10 dollars a month for its services and that it wants to charge the same real value to its U.K. customers, if the pound/dollar exchange rate is .5 pounds for 1 dollar then Netflix would have to charge its U.K. customers 5 pounds a month. However, interest rates are constantly changing and if Netflix doesn’t do something about this risk then its cash flow would be constantly changing. For example if the pound depreciates against the
This decision has not only affected Britain’s economy but also global economy. The impact in UK markets has been considerable, as Dr. Andrei Nikiforov (August 4th, 2016) stated “Because of this unexpected slowdown in economic activity, the first obvious casualty of the Brexit vote was the British pound, which significantly depreciated against other major currencies.” he bases this statement because right after the vote, the pound (Britain’s currency) dropped its value to the lowest in the last 30 years.
The effect of opening the economy to trade in goods and services, is that the IS curve needs to be specified for a given exchange rate. The IS curve still depicts the combinations of i and Y for which the level of total expenditures equals the level of production, but now, in addition to being determined by the interest rate, total expenditures are also determined by the exchange rate (since the exchange rate affects the level of NX). Under a fixed exchange rate regime, the IS curve is fixed (unless there is a change in government spending or tax rates, or the government devalues or revalues the currency). Under a flexible exchange rate regime, the price of foreign exchange fluctuates to equate the demand and supply of foreign exchange. Thus, e changes on a frequent basis. Whenever e changes, the IS curve shifts. If
9) C – Foreign capital will be attracted to the United States and the dollar with appreciate.
The rate is expected to continue decreasing or rather the US dollar is expected to gain strength against the Euro in the near future as a result of the
Outline at least six possible benefits to the UK economy of the strong British pound
. If the United Kingdom leaves the British EU will push capital away from the region and toward a safe haven market including Japan and the United States Treasuries. This will raise relative currency values and interest rates which will further lower the market. A higher Japanese Yen and United States dollar are negative to both economies export sectors. This will be unhelpful in the case of Japan because it will reinvigorate decades of deflation in the economy. China will receive pressure from the higher U.S. dollar it will be caught in between its two largest export markets the United States and the European Union. The strong inflation services on tradable goods for the United States will negatively impact domestic demand trends on