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Economic Recovery

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The economic recovery that has lasted nearly 6.5 years is missing a key ingredient for lasting economic growth; investment spending/capital spending by corporations. Last week the Federal Reserve raised short-term interest rates for the first time since 2006, nearly a decade. This has created an economy flooded with cheap money. Corporations have been able to borrow money at extremely low rates, just as all Americans have become accustom to zero percent interest car loans that stretch out seven years, and mortgage interest rates at unprecedented low levels. Economist theorize that low interest rates will cause consumers and companies to borrow which leads to spending. So how well has that worked out? Not well enough in my opinion. …show more content…

Share buy backs are great for the short-term but can cost investors in the long-term. More on this later. The economic recovery has been one of the slowest since World War II, and is still anemic. Third quarter GDP was released yesterday and only increased by 2.1% from a year earlier. On the flipside, unemployment is low (as measured by the Government) and consumer confidence is high. According to the Wall Street Journal, the U.S. economic growth is on pace to expand at less than 3% for the 10th straight year, the longest stretch in the postwar …show more content…

This has caused the stock market to reward such behavior at the expense of future shareholders. When companies buy back shares they spend money that is gone for good, while at the same time increase earning per share. This makes each current shareholder own a little larger piece of the pie. However, the cash is now gone. Share buybacks are good when a company is maxing out capital spending on profitable investments but still have excess cash. Currently dividend and buybacks for the year are over $900 billion. This has directly contributed to such anemic economic expansion.

Keep an eye on capital spending going forward and until we see it rise and demand for durable goods pick up we can expect to continue with this moderate to slow economy for a while longer.

Remember to ask your Financial Adviser to describe their sell strategy. With markets near all time highs, it is time to examine your exit strategy to protect your investments. If you don't have a sell strategy in place, call our office for a no cost portfolio

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