What should be the analyst’s decision? b. How much gain or loss will he expect for the company? c. Should he buy the perfect information? Why or why not? d. What will he do to minimize opportunity cost?
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14. Stephanie, the supply chain analyst of Nestle is asked to present an expansion plan for the
company. The plan is either to construct a plant, open a distribution center, or do nothing. From
the plant construction, the company will gain 80,000Php if the market turns favorable, loss of
10,000 if average, and loss of 50,000 if unfavorable. From opening a distribution center, the
company will gain 40,000Php if favorable, gain 20,000Php if average, and loss of 30,000Php if
unfavorable. And if the decision is do nothing, the company will gain nothing regardless of the
market turnout. Then, he was able to determine further the probability of occurrence of each
type of market. The probability of occurrence is 60%, 25%, and 40%, respectively. He also found
out that he can buy the information on what will really happen to the market for 2,000Php.
a. What should be the analyst’s decision?
b. How much gain or loss will he expect for the company?
c. Should he buy the perfect information? Why or why not?
d. What will he do to minimize opportunity cost?
Step by step
Solved in 3 steps
- Scenario 4 Sharon Gillespie, a new buyer at Visionex, Inc., was reviewing quotations for a tooling contract submitted by four suppliers. She was evaluating the quotes based on price, target quality levels, and delivery lead time promises. As she was working, her manager, Dave Cox, entered her office. He asked how everything was progressing and if she needed any help. She mentioned she was reviewing quotations from suppliers for a tooling contract. Dave asked who the interested suppliers were and if she had made a decision. Sharon indicated that one supplier, Apex, appeared to fit exactly the requirements Visionex had specified in the proposal. Dave told her to keep up the good work. Later that day Dave again visited Sharons office. He stated that he had done some research on the suppliers and felt that another supplier, Micron, appeared to have the best track record with Visionex. He pointed out that Sharons first choice was a new supplier to Visionex and there was some risk involved with that choice. Dave indicated that it would please him greatly if she selected Micron for the contract. The next day Sharon was having lunch with another buyer, Mark Smith. She mentioned the conversation with Dave and said she honestly felt that Apex was the best choice. When Mark asked Sharon who Dave preferred, she answered, Micron. At that point Mark rolled his eyes and shook his head. Sharon asked what the body language was all about. Mark replied, Look, I know youre new but you should know this. I heard last week that Daves brother-in-law is a new part owner of Micron. I was wondering how soon it would be before he started steering business to that company. He is not the straightest character. Sharon was shocked. After a few moments, she announced that her original choice was still the best selection. At that point Mark reminded Sharon that she was replacing a terminated buyer who did not go along with one of Daves previous preferred suppliers. Ethical decisions that affect a buyers ethical perspective usually involve the organizational environment, cultural environment, personal environment, and industry environment. Analyze this scenario using these four variables.Scenario 4 Sharon Gillespie, a new buyer at Visionex, Inc., was reviewing quotations for a tooling contract submitted by four suppliers. She was evaluating the quotes based on price, target quality levels, and delivery lead time promises. As she was working, her manager, Dave Cox, entered her office. He asked how everything was progressing and if she needed any help. She mentioned she was reviewing quotations from suppliers for a tooling contract. Dave asked who the interested suppliers were and if she had made a decision. Sharon indicated that one supplier, Apex, appeared to fit exactly the requirements Visionex had specified in the proposal. Dave told her to keep up the good work. Later that day Dave again visited Sharons office. He stated that he had done some research on the suppliers and felt that another supplier, Micron, appeared to have the best track record with Visionex. He pointed out that Sharons first choice was a new supplier to Visionex and there was some risk involved with that choice. Dave indicated that it would please him greatly if she selected Micron for the contract. The next day Sharon was having lunch with another buyer, Mark Smith. She mentioned the conversation with Dave and said she honestly felt that Apex was the best choice. When Mark asked Sharon who Dave preferred, she answered, Micron. At that point Mark rolled his eyes and shook his head. Sharon asked what the body language was all about. Mark replied, Look, I know youre new but you should know this. I heard last week that Daves brother-in-law is a new part owner of Micron. I was wondering how soon it would be before he started steering business to that company. He is not the straightest character. Sharon was shocked. After a few moments, she announced that her original choice was still the best selection. At that point Mark reminded Sharon that she was replacing a terminated buyer who did not go along with one of Daves previous preferred suppliers. What does the Institute of Supply Management code of ethics say about financial conflicts of interest?Scenario 4 Sharon Gillespie, a new buyer at Visionex, Inc., was reviewing quotations for a tooling contract submitted by four suppliers. She was evaluating the quotes based on price, target quality levels, and delivery lead time promises. As she was working, her manager, Dave Cox, entered her office. He asked how everything was progressing and if she needed any help. She mentioned she was reviewing quotations from suppliers for a tooling contract. Dave asked who the interested suppliers were and if she had made a decision. Sharon indicated that one supplier, Apex, appeared to fit exactly the requirements Visionex had specified in the proposal. Dave told her to keep up the good work. Later that day Dave again visited Sharons office. He stated that he had done some research on the suppliers and felt that another supplier, Micron, appeared to have the best track record with Visionex. He pointed out that Sharons first choice was a new supplier to Visionex and there was some risk involved with that choice. Dave indicated that it would please him greatly if she selected Micron for the contract. The next day Sharon was having lunch with another buyer, Mark Smith. She mentioned the conversation with Dave and said she honestly felt that Apex was the best choice. When Mark asked Sharon who Dave preferred, she answered, Micron. At that point Mark rolled his eyes and shook his head. Sharon asked what the body language was all about. Mark replied, Look, I know youre new but you should know this. I heard last week that Daves brother-in-law is a new part owner of Micron. I was wondering how soon it would be before he started steering business to that company. He is not the straightest character. Sharon was shocked. After a few moments, she announced that her original choice was still the best selection. At that point Mark reminded Sharon that she was replacing a terminated buyer who did not go along with one of Daves previous preferred suppliers. What should Sharon do in this situation?
- Scenario 3 Ben Gibson, the purchasing manager at Coastal Products, was reviewing purchasing expenditures for packaging materials with Jeff Joyner. Ben was particularly disturbed about the amount spent on corrugated boxes purchased from Southeastern Corrugated. Ben said, I dont like the salesman from that company. He comes around here acting like he owns the place. He loves to tell us about his fancy car, house, and vacations. It seems to me he must be making too much money off of us! Jeff responded that he heard Southeastern Corrugated was going to ask for a price increase to cover the rising costs of raw material paper stock. Jeff further stated that Southeastern would probably ask for more than what was justified simply from rising paper stock costs. After the meeting, Ben decided he had heard enough. After all, he prided himself on being a results-oriented manager. There was no way he was going to allow that salesman to keep taking advantage of Coastal Products. Ben called Jeff and told him it was time to rebid the corrugated contract before Southeastern came in with a price increase request. Who did Jeff know that might be interested in the business? Jeff replied he had several companies in mind to include in the bidding process. These companies would surely come in at a lower price, partly because they used lower-grade boxes that would probably work well enough in Coastal Products process. Jeff also explained that these suppliers were not serious contenders for the business. Their purpose was to create competition with the bids. Ben told Jeff to make sure that Southeastern was well aware that these new suppliers were bidding on the contract. He also said to make sure the suppliers knew that price was going to be the determining factor in this quote, because he considered corrugated boxes to be a standard industry item. As the Marketing Manager for Southeastern Corrugated, what would you do upon receiving the request for quotation from Coastal Products?Scenario 3 Ben Gibson, the purchasing manager at Coastal Products, was reviewing purchasing expenditures for packaging materials with Jeff Joyner. Ben was particularly disturbed about the amount spent on corrugated boxes purchased from Southeastern Corrugated. Ben said, I dont like the salesman from that company. He comes around here acting like he owns the place. He loves to tell us about his fancy car, house, and vacations. It seems to me he must be making too much money off of us! Jeff responded that he heard Southeastern Corrugated was going to ask for a price increase to cover the rising costs of raw material paper stock. Jeff further stated that Southeastern would probably ask for more than what was justified simply from rising paper stock costs. After the meeting, Ben decided he had heard enough. After all, he prided himself on being a results-oriented manager. There was no way he was going to allow that salesman to keep taking advantage of Coastal Products. Ben called Jeff and told him it was time to rebid the corrugated contract before Southeastern came in with a price increase request. Who did Jeff know that might be interested in the business? Jeff replied he had several companies in mind to include in the bidding process. These companies would surely come in at a lower price, partly because they used lower-grade boxes that would probably work well enough in Coastal Products process. Jeff also explained that these suppliers were not serious contenders for the business. Their purpose was to create competition with the bids. Ben told Jeff to make sure that Southeastern was well aware that these new suppliers were bidding on the contract. He also said to make sure the suppliers knew that price was going to be the determining factor in this quote, because he considered corrugated boxes to be a standard industry item. Is Ben Gibson acting legally? Is he acting ethically? Why or why not?20. The Video Game Supply Company (VGS) is deciding whether to set next year's production at 2000, 2500, or 3000 games. Demand could be low, medium, or high. Using historical data, VGS estimates the probabilities as: 0.4 for low demand, 0.3 for medium demand, and 0.3 for high demand. The following profit payoff table (in $100s) has been developed. Demand Production Target Low Medium High 2000 games 2500 games 3000 games 1000 1200 1400 800 1500 1300 600 1700 1400 (a) [1] What is the maximax decision alternative? (b) [1] What is the maximin decision alternative? (c) [2] Determine the expected value of each alternative and indicate what should be the production target for next year based on expected value. (d) [1] Determine the expected value with perfect information about the states of nature. (e) [1] Determine the expected value of perfect information.
- 6. Laura is trying to decide whether to sell her knitted hats on Etsy, at a holiday bazaar, or in a local boutique. Demand could be 0 hats/month, 10 hats/month, or 20 hats/month. Given the payoff matrix below, what is her decision under equally likely? Demand = 0 Demand = 10 Demand = 20 Etsy -$70 $80 $230 Bazaar -$60 $90 $240 Boutique -$80 $70 $220 Select one: a. Etsy and boutique. b. Etsy only. c. Etsy and bazaar. d. Bazaar and boutique. e. All 3 are equally good. f. Bazaar only. g. None of them are good options. h. Boutique only.3. A toy manufacturer makes stuffed kittens and puppies which have relatively lifelike motions. There are three different mechanisms that can be installed in these "pets." These toys will sell for the same price regardless of the mechanism installed, but each mechanism has its own variable cost and setup cost. Profit, therefore, is dependent upon the choice of mechanism and upon the level of demand. The manufacturer has in hand a forecast of demand that suggests a 0.2 probability of light demand, a 0.45 probability of moderate demand, and a probability of 0.35 of heavy demand. Payoffs for each mechanism-demand combination appear in the table below. Wind-up action Pneumatic action Electronic action Demand Light Moderate $250,000 $90,000 -$100,000 400,000 440,000 400,000 Heavy 650,000 740,000 780,000 Construct the appropriate decision tree to analyze this problem. Use standard symbols for the tree. Analyze the tree to select the optimal decision for the manufacturer.Maximax, Maximin, Minimax RegretLearning material: Watch this videoLab Scenario:Imagine a local entrepreneur is considering starting a business and has three options: open a coffeeshop, a bookshop, or a fusion coffee-bookshop. The entrepreneur is uncertain about the market'sreaction to these businesses. The possible market conditions are: favorable, neutral, and unfavorable.Data (Payoff Table in USD):Business Option Favorable Market Neutral Market Unfavorable MarketCoffee Shop 150,000 70,000 -30,000Bookshop 100,000 60,000 -20,000Fusion Shop 130,000 80,000 -10,000Positive values represent profits, and negative values represent losses.Assignment Steps:1. Maximax (Optimist's Criterion) Approach:For each business option, identify the maximum possible payoff.First Question What is the business option with the highest of these maximum payoffs? (5points)2. Maximin (Pessimist's Criterion) Approach:For each business option, identify the minimum possible payoff.Second Question What is the…
- #6) A group of medical professionals is considering constructing a private clinic. If a patient demand for the clinic is high, the physicians could realize a net profit of $120,000. If the demand is low, they could lose $55,000. Of course, they do not have to proceed at all, in which case there is no cost. In the absence of any market data, the best the physicians can guess is that there is a 50-50 chance the demand would be high. a) Create a decision tree. b) What should the medical professionals do? What is the payoff? c) The physicians have been approached by a market research firm that offers to perform a study of the market at a fee of $5,000. The market researchers claim that their experience enables them to use Bayes’ theorem to make the following statements of probability: -probability of high demand given a positive survey result = 0.82 -probability of low demand given a positive survey result = 0.18 -probability of high demand given a negative survey result = 0.11…Year E F G H 0 − $90 − $110 − $100 − $120 1 20 35 0 0 2 20 35 10 0 3 20 35 20 0 4 20 35 30 0 5 20 0 40 0 6 20 0 50 180 (a)Based on the payback period, which alternative is preferred? (b)Based on future worth analysis, which of the four alternatives is preferred at 5% interest? (c)Based on future worth analysis, which alternative is preferred at 20% interest? (d)At 10% interest, what is the benefit–cost ratio for Alt. G?Determine which factor of production is needed in the following problem. 1.The ABM manufacturing Co.hired a gardener.He uses a lawn mower for landscaping.Which factor of production would you consider this machine? 2.The owner of the company withdrew cash for the salaries of thw employees.which factor of production would you consider cash on hand? 3.The top manager of the firm said "the great ideas,consepts and emotional determination of a person to produce something that consumers want to buy" is very important for the company.What factor of production describes the ability to create great ideas? 4.The farmers planted pineapple cutting in the vacant area located in their locality.Which factor of production would you consider a pineapple plantation?