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- 2 Consider the two investments listed below with possible outcomes and probabilities: INVESTMENT (in $1000) SAFE RISKY INVESTMENT AMOUNTⓇ 40+ 40+ GOOD SCENARIO OUTCOME 45+ 80+ AVERAGE+ SCENARIO PROB OUTCOME 0.40* 0.40€ 42+ 45+ BAD+ SCENARIO PROB OUTCOME PROB 0.20 35+ 0.20 10+ 0.40€ 0.40+ b) a) Suppose I have utility function U(*) = (x)2. What is the expected utility from each investment? Which investment will I choose, if any? Show and explain your work and provide the intuition. c) What is the value of the risk premium for the SAFE investment? Show and explain your work and provide the intuition. d) What is the value of the risk premium for the RISKY investment? Show and explain your work and provide the intuition.< +6. Policyholders are assumed to have a utility function u(x) = e- where > 0 varies between policyholders following an exponential distribution with unknown mean. An insurance company sells an insurance policy which covers a risk which causes a loss of $6,000 with probability 0.4. There are 3,000,000 potential customers for this policy. The insurer finds that when the premium for the policy is set to $3000, they are able to sell 952,000 policies. How many policies would they sell if they increased the premium to $4,000?Economics Shawn's consumption is subject to risk. With probability 0.75 he will enjoy 10000 in consumption, but with probability 0.25 he will have only 3600. His utility function for consumption is given by v(c) = Vc. -What is the expected value of Shawn's consumption? -What is his expected utility? -What is his certainty equivalent of having 10000 with probability 0.75 and 3600 with probability 0.25?
- Consider an investment that pays off $700 or $1,600 per $1,000 invested with equal probability. Suppose you have $1,000 but are willing to borrow to increase your expected return. What would happen to the expected value and standard deviation of the investment if you borrowed an additional $1,000 and invested a total of $2,000? What if you borrowed $2,000 to invest a total of $3,000? Instructions: Fill in the table below to answer the questions above. Enter your responses as whole numbers and enter percentage values as percentages not decimals (.e., 20% not 0.20). Enter a negative sign (-) to indicate a negative number if necessary. Invest $1,000 Invest $2,000 Invest $3,000 Expected Value Percent Increase Standard Deviation 1150 S 28 % $ 8 % $ Expected Return N/A Doubled Tripled : #Hello can any one help with this Economics question: A contractor spends Dollar 3,000 to prepare for a bid on a construction project which, after deducting manufacturing expenses and the cost of bidding, will yield a profit of dollar 25,000 if the bid is won. If the chance of winning the bid is ten per cent, compute his expected profit and state the likely decision on whether to bid or not to bid?5. Shift-in-charge Nazar Al Rushdy: Nazar is pessimistic about the market price. What is your guidance for Nazar? The decision to employ decision trees in crucial situations has been taken by Salem Al Harthi, the plant manager. The table below presents data on demand for a duration of 6 hours along with their respective probabilities. The first row of the table provides the probability of demand for the initial three hours when a leak occurs, denoted in parentheses. Subsequently, the following three rows indicate the probabilities of high, medium, and low demand for the succeeding three hours. To illustrate, if the initial 3-hour market price was low, the probabilities of high demand, medium demand, and low demand in the next three hours are 0.2, 0.3, and 0.5, respectively. Market price High Market price Medium Initial 3-hrs (0.2) Initial 3-hrs (0.5) Market price Low Initial 3-hrs (0.3) High demand (next (0.5) (0.4) (0.2) 3 hrs) Medium demand (0.3) (0.2) (0.3) (next 3 hours) Low demand…
- 3. Sarah's current disposable income is £90,000. Suppose there's a 1% chance that Sarah's house may be flooded, and if it is, the cost of repairing it will be £80,000, reducing her disposable income to £10,000. Suppose also that her utility function of income M is: U = VM (a)Calculate Sarah's expected income and expected utility given the risk of flooding. (b)For her to take an insurance that fully insures her in the event of house flooding, Sarah would have to pay a price for such an insurance, which would reduce her disposable income. What would be the minimum certain disposable income required for Sarah to take an insurance that fully insures her in the event of house flooding? Explain your answer.4. $1000 with of $325. (a) (b) Adam is risk averse. He is offered a choice between a gamble that pays a probability of 25% and $100 with a probability of 75%, or a sure payment What is the expected payment of the gamble? Will Adam prefer gamble over sure payment? Would he change his mind if the sure payment is $320 instead of $325? (c) If this individual has a utility function u(x) = lnx, would he prefer the payment of $320 or the gamble? (d) In the CRRA utility family u(x) = x¹-7. If this individual has a utility where y = 0.01, would he prefer the payment of $320 or the gamble?Explain why the variance of an investment is a useful measure of the risk associated with it
- 5. Consider a weather forecaster who is paid based on her performance. Each day, she forecasts the probability q = [0, 1] that it will rain the following day. She is given a bonus that depends on her forecast and whether it rains. Assume that the forecaster knows the true probability, p, and when choosing her forecast, q, cares only about maximizing her bonus for that day (in particular, she may lie about the probability if doing so increases her pay). (a) Suppose the bonus is equal to the percentage the forecast assigns to what actually happens. For example, if the forecaster says there is a 72% chance of rain (i.e. q = 0.72), then she is paid $72 if it rains and $28 if it does not rain. If the forecaster is a risk neutral expected utility maximizer, what forecast will she make (as a function of p)? (b) Suppose instead that the bonus is equal to 100(1 − (1 − q)2) dollars if it rains and 100(1-q²) dollars if it does not rain. For example, if the forecaster says there is an 80% chance…19. An individual has initial wealth Wo = 3 and has the opportunity to invest some quantity of money x in an extremely risky corporate bond. With probability p= 1/4, the bond will be worth 10x at maturity. With probability 1 – p, it will be worth zero. The individual's utility function over final wealth is u(W) = W0.5. What is the level of investment x that maximizes expected utility? (а) 0 (b) 1 (c) 4/3 (d) V3 (e) 26. Expected Utility. Consider a Princeton student who feels that a "normal" year on campus is like gaining $A, compared to taking the year off, which gives utility u(wof). But she fears Princeton will renege on its promise of a normal year, and move everything online; she feels that this is like losing $L (compared to a normal on-campus year). If she expects this to happen with probability p, (a) Write out the expected utility from enrolling. (b) Write out the expected utility from taking the year off. (c) Show: if the student chooses to take the year off, and is risk-loving, it must be that L> A/p.