Practical Management Science
6th Edition
ISBN: 9781337406659
Author: WINSTON, Wayne L.
Publisher: Cengage,
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Chapter 13, Problem 43P
Summary Introduction
To determine: Whether the data consistent with the idea of presidential coattails.
Introduction: Simulation model is the digital prototype of the physical model that helps to
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Solve for the predicted values of y and the residuals for the following data.
Advertising
12.5
3.7
21.5
60.0
37.6
6.1
16.6
41.2
Sales
141
55
338
994
542
89
126
379
(Do not round the intermediate values. Round your answers to 4 decimal places, e.g. 1.7585.)
y
Predicted ( ŷ )
Residuals (y – ŷ )
12.5
141
3.7
55
21.5 338
60.0
994
37.6 141
6.1
89
16.6
126
41.2 379
Paraphrase this one. Analyze and elaborate in 85 words.
The accuracy of predictive analysis is intricately linked to the currency of its data. Temporal factors play a pivotal role in the precision of predictions. Data from a year past might prove too antiquated to effectively forecast trends and patterns in today's dynamic global market. Neglecting this temporal dimension could potentially expose organizations to substantial financial risks.
Corporate triple-A bond interest rates for 12 consecutive months follow.
9.5
9.4
9.5
9.6
9.8
9.8
9.9
10.6
9.9
9.7
9.6
9.6
(a)
Construct a time series plot.
What type of pattern exists in the data?
The data appear to follow a trend pattern.The data appear to follow a cyclical pattern. The data appear to follow a horizontal pattern.The data appear to follow a seasonal pattern.
(b)
Develop three-month and four-month moving averages for this time series. (Round your answers to two decimal places.)
Month
Time SeriesValue
3-Month MovingAverage Forecast
4-Month MovingAverage Forecast
1
9.5
2
9.4
3
9.5
4
9.6
5
9.8
6
9.8
7
9.9
8
10.6
9
9.9
10
9.7
11
9.6
12
9.6
Does the three-month or four-month moving average provide more accurate forecasts based on MSE? Explain.
The three-month moving average provides more accurate forecasts, because its MSE is larger than that of the four-month moving…
Chapter 13 Solutions
Practical Management Science
Ch. 13.3 - The file P13_01.xlsx contains the monthly number...Ch. 13.3 - The file P13_02.xlsx contains five years of...Ch. 13.3 - The file P13_03.xlsx contains monthly data on...Ch. 13.3 - The file P13_04.xlsx lists the monthly sales for a...Ch. 13.3 - Management of a home appliance store wants to...Ch. 13.3 - Do the sales prices of houses in a given community...Ch. 13.3 - Prob. 7PCh. 13.3 - The management of a technology company is trying...Ch. 13.3 - Prob. 9PCh. 13.3 - Sometimes curvature in a scatterplot can be fit...
Ch. 13.4 - Prob. 12PCh. 13.4 - A trucking company wants to predict the yearly...Ch. 13.4 - An antique collector believes that the price...Ch. 13.4 - Stock market analysts are continually looking for...Ch. 13.4 - Suppose that a regional express delivery service...Ch. 13.4 - The owner of a restaurant in Bloomington, Indiana,...Ch. 13.6 - The file P13_19.xlsx contains the weekly sales of...Ch. 13.6 - The file P13_20.xlsx contains the monthly sales of...Ch. 13.6 - The file P13_21.xlsx contains the weekly sales of...Ch. 13.6 - The file P13_22.xlsx contains total monthly U.S....Ch. 13.7 - You have been assigned to forecast the number of...Ch. 13.7 - Simple exponential smoothing with = 0.3 is being...Ch. 13.7 - The file P13_25.xlsx contains the quarterly...Ch. 13.7 - The file P13_26.xlsx contains the monthly number...Ch. 13.7 - The file P13_27.xlsx contains yearly data on the...Ch. 13.7 - The file P13_28.xlsx contains monthly retail sales...Ch. 13.7 - The file P13_29.xlsx contains monthly time series...Ch. 13.7 - A version of simple exponential smoothing can be...Ch. 13 - Prob. 31PCh. 13 - Prob. 32PCh. 13 - Management of a home appliance store would like to...Ch. 13 - A small computer chip manufacturer wants to...Ch. 13 - The file P13_35.xlsx contains the amount of money...Ch. 13 - Prob. 36PCh. 13 - Prob. 37PCh. 13 - Prob. 39PCh. 13 - The Baker Company wants to develop a budget to...Ch. 13 - Prob. 41PCh. 13 - The file P13_42.xlsx contains monthly data on...Ch. 13 - Prob. 43PCh. 13 - Prob. 44PCh. 13 - Prob. 45PCh. 13 - Prob. 46PCh. 13 - Prob. 49P
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