Suppose you are the marketing manager of a firm, and you plan to introduce a new product to the market. You have to estimate the first year net profit, which depends on several variables • Sales volume (in units) • Price per unit • Unit cost • Fixed costs Your net profit is net profit = sales volume × (price per unit-unit cost) - fixed cost The fixed cost is $120, 000, but other factors have some uncertainty. Based on your market research, there are equal chance that the market will be slow, ok, or hot.

College Algebra
1st Edition
ISBN:9781938168383
Author:Jay Abramson
Publisher:Jay Abramson
Chapter7: Systems Of Equations And Inequalities
Section7.3: Systems Of Nonlinear Equations And Inequalities: Two Variables
Problem 4SE: If you graph a revenue and cost function, explain how to determine in what regions there is profit.
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Suppose you are the marketing manager of a firm, and you plan to introduce a new product to
the market. You have to estimate the first year net profit, which depends on several variables
• Sales volume (in units)
• Price per unit
• Unit cost
. Fixed costs
Your net profit is
net profit = sales volume x (price per unit-unit cost) - fixed cost
The fixed cost is $120, 000, but other factors have some uncertainty. Based on your market research,
there are equal chance that the market will be slow, ok, or hot.
• Slow market the sales volume follows Poisson distribution with mean 50,000 units product, and
the average price per unit is $11.00
●
Ok market the sales volume follows Poisson distribution with mean 75,000 units product, the
average price per unit is $10.00
Hot market: the sales volume follows Poisson distribution with mean 100,000 units product, but
the competition is severe so you expect the average price per unit is just $8.00
No matter what the market type is, your average unit cost follows a normal distribution N(6.5, 1²).
Note that the unit cost is fixed for entire year, same for all units being sold. (Aka, you only need to
sample one unit cost per Monte Carlo simulation).
• Please run Monte Carlo simulations by Excel to sample possible net profit for the next year.
Report the average net profit and draw a histogram of the net profits in the document of your
solution. Also, please export the excel file to pdf file and submit your pdf file for the simulation.
[Hint: Basically you need to generate three types of random variables: 1. sample one from the three
possible markets, use function =RANDBETWEEN(1,3) to generate a random index from 1 to 3.
2. Draw sales volume from the Poisson distribution. 3. Draw average unit cost from the normal
distribution.]
Transcribed Image Text:Suppose you are the marketing manager of a firm, and you plan to introduce a new product to the market. You have to estimate the first year net profit, which depends on several variables • Sales volume (in units) • Price per unit • Unit cost . Fixed costs Your net profit is net profit = sales volume x (price per unit-unit cost) - fixed cost The fixed cost is $120, 000, but other factors have some uncertainty. Based on your market research, there are equal chance that the market will be slow, ok, or hot. • Slow market the sales volume follows Poisson distribution with mean 50,000 units product, and the average price per unit is $11.00 ● Ok market the sales volume follows Poisson distribution with mean 75,000 units product, the average price per unit is $10.00 Hot market: the sales volume follows Poisson distribution with mean 100,000 units product, but the competition is severe so you expect the average price per unit is just $8.00 No matter what the market type is, your average unit cost follows a normal distribution N(6.5, 1²). Note that the unit cost is fixed for entire year, same for all units being sold. (Aka, you only need to sample one unit cost per Monte Carlo simulation). • Please run Monte Carlo simulations by Excel to sample possible net profit for the next year. Report the average net profit and draw a histogram of the net profits in the document of your solution. Also, please export the excel file to pdf file and submit your pdf file for the simulation. [Hint: Basically you need to generate three types of random variables: 1. sample one from the three possible markets, use function =RANDBETWEEN(1,3) to generate a random index from 1 to 3. 2. Draw sales volume from the Poisson distribution. 3. Draw average unit cost from the normal distribution.]
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