The product manager of a tide and he is planning to launch a new product. He can either launch Tide with Zonrox, Tide with Downy, or not do anything at all. If he will launch Tide with Zonrox, the company will gain P20,000 if the market is successful or lose P18,000 if the market is a failure. If he will launch Tide with Downy, the company will gain P12,000 if the market is successful or lose P3,000 if the market is a failure. If he does not launch anything, the company will not gain anything whether the market is successful or a failure. The probability is 60% that the market is successful and 40% that the market is a failure. Probability Maximum Opportunity Loss Minimum Perfect Probability Expected Monetary Value (EMV) Expected Value of Perfection (EVPI) Maximax Maximin EMV Minimax
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- The owner of a retail store that specializes in school supplies plans to buy TV ad time during the broadcast of Wheel of Fortune, a game show that has a rating of 20. It reaches 15,000 people in the primary target audience and a 30-second spot costs $500. What is the cost per thousand (CPM) of the show? 1) $33 2) $133 3) $30 4) $23 5) $750 Dravinur DnnMichael is the marketing executive of SHOPEE and he is planning to launch the 2.2.22 online SALE through price discounts, either 40% off or 20% off. He also learned that SHOPEE closest competitor LAZADA , is planning to promote also a 2.22.22 online SALE with price discounts , either 50% off or 30% off. If SHOPEE launches the 40% off, it will gain nothing. If LAZADA launches the 50% off or gain 8,000,000 if LAZADA launches the 30% off. If SHOPEE launches the 20% off, it will lose 2,000,000 if LAZADA launches the 50% off or lose 5,000,000 if LAZADA launches the 30% off. What should be Michael's Strategy for SHOPEE and what should be the strategy of LAZADA? A. Michael should launch the 20% OFF for SHOPEE and LAZADA should launch the 30% OFF. B. Michael should launch the 40% OFF for SHOPEE and LAZADA should launch the 30% OFF. C. Michael should launch the 40% OFF for SHOPPE and LAZADA should launch the 50% OFF. D. Michael should launch the 20% OFF for SHOPPE and LAZADA should launch…In 1996, McDonald’s (MD) launched Campaign 55, reducing the prices ofits “flagship” sandwiches with the objective of regaining market share. Beforethe launch, suppose MD’s management envisioned two possible outcomes: astrong customer response or a weak response. Industry experts were notvery optimistic about the campaign. They assessed the probability of a strong response to be .40. MD predicted an expected profit of $50 million if theresponse proved to be strong. If the immediate customer response was weak,management believed that all was not lost. If MD could persuade themajority of its franchisees to back and help fund the campaign, the resultingprofit would be $20 million. However, if the majority rose up against thecampaign, the red ink would fly, and McDonald’s profit would be -$100million. MD considered these two outcomes to be equally likely.a. Given these assessments, construct a decision tree to determine MD’sexpected-profit-maximizing course of action.b. Suppose that MD has…
- Michael is the marketing executive of SHOPEE and he is planning to launch the 2.2.22 online SALE through price discounts, either 40% off or 20% off. He also learned that SHOPEE closest competitor LAZADA , is planning to promote also a 2.22.22 online SALE with price discounts , either 50% off or 30% off. If SHOPEE launches the 40% off, it will gain nothing. If LAZADA launches the 50% off or gain 8,000,000 if LAZADA launches the 30% off. If SHOPEE launches the 20% off, it will lose 2,000,000 if LAZADA launches the 50% off or lose 5,000,000 if LAZADA launches the 30% off. 1.Which strategy is dominated by SHOPEE depending on strategy of LAZADA? A. 50% OFF B. 40% OFF C. 20% OFF D. 30% OFF E. NONE 2.What should be the strategy of LAZADA? A. 50% OFF B. 40% OFF C. 30% OFF D. 20% OFFA tech startup developed a new product for its customers. It needs to decide whether to launch it next month or wait for nine months. The company discovers the success rate for options, along with their potential revenue. It also learns the probability of failure and corresponding losses for each. . . Option A: Launch next month has a 55% probability of success with potential revenue of $250,000. It has a 45% failure rate with a potential loss of $125,000. Option B: Launch in nine months has a 65% probability of success with potential revenue of $400,000. It has a 35% failure rate with a potential loss of $200,000. What is the potential value if they release the product next month?Alternative A1 A2 Prior Probability State of Nature S1 S2 -40 100 0.4 75 0 0.6 There is an option of paying $100 to have research done to better predict which state of nature will occur. When the true state of nature is S1, the research will accurately predict S1 60% of the time. When the true state of nature is S2, the research will accurately predict S2 80% of the time. What is the posterior probability of S2 given that the research predicts S2?
- The Gorman Manufacturing Company must decide whether to manufacture a component part at its Milan, Michigan, plant or purchase the component part from a supplier. The resulting profit is dependent upon the demand for the product. The following payoff table shows the projected profit (in thousands of dollars): Decision State of Nature Alternative Low Demand (S1) Medium Demand (S2) High Demand )S3) Manufacture, d(1) -20 40 100 Purchase, d(2) 10 45 70 The state-of-nature probabilities are P s1= 0.35, P s2= 0.35, and P s3= 0.30 Use expected value to recommend a decision.A salesperson uses three different airlines. The probabilities of switching from one airline to another in consecutive flights are shown below. If the last flight was on Delta, what is the probability that the next was on American? American Delta Southwest American 0.5 0.25 0.25 Delta 0.2 0.6 0.2 Southwest 0.3 0.3 0.4 A 0.5 B 0.2 C 0.25 D 0.63. The manager for a manufacturing company must recommend whether to construct a large plant, construct a small plant or do nothing. He estimates the long-run profits in $ as follows: State of Nature Alternative Good Average Poor Market($) Market ($) Market ($) Construct a 100,000 35,000 -60,000 large plant Construct a 75,000 25,000 -40,000 small plant Do nothing -5,000 0 0 Probability 25% 50% 25% Solve using: A. Expected Opportunity Loss B. Expected Value of Perfect Information
- An entrepreneur has embarked on a project to use human hair in place of animal furs in a clothing line. The human hair is to be woven into cotton fabrics, to make a hybrid fabric, that can be used as a thermal insulating fabric (i.e., it keeps persons warm). To increase the probability of sales the hybrid fabric must be dyed in various colors. Provide advice to the entrepreneur on what approaches should/could be taken to dye the new hybrid fabric. In your advice discuss the requirements of the dyes to be used, why hair dyes would not be a good option and how the dye(s) you suggest would work in the application based on the structure/properties of the fabric.Use the following information to answer multiple-choice Questions 21 to 30. A fibre glass company is considering the possibility of introducing a new product. Because of the expense involved in developing the initial moulds and acquiring the necessary equipment to produce fibreglass, it has decided to conduct a pilot study to make sure that the market will be adequate. They estimate that the pilot study will cost £12,000. Furthermore, the pilot study can be either successful or unsuccessful. The basic decisions are to build a large manufacturing facility, a small manufacturing facility, or no facility at all. With a favourable market, the company can expect to make £100,000 from the large facility or £60,000 from the smaller facility. If the market is unfavourable, however, they estimate that they would lose £40,000 with a large facility, while they would lose only £30,000 with the small facility. The company estimates that the probability of a favourable market given a successful…The following table shows quarterly sales (in thousand units) for a product over 4 years. The overall sales average for the entire 4 years is 166.125 (thousand units). Fill in the missing values assuming there is no trend. Round seasonal indexes to 4 decimal places. Report Averages accurate to at most 2 decimal places. Report Actual sales ('000) accurate to the nearest integer. Year Year Seasonal Year 1 Year 2 Average 4 Index Quarter 205 211 182 1.1768 1 Quarter 152 170 158 156 2 Quarter 182 190 198 193 3 Quarter 128 112 113 0.7178 4