The Carbondale Hospital is considering the purchase of a new ambulance. The decision will rest partly on the anticipated mileage to be driven next year. The miles driven during the past 5 years are as followsYearMileage13,10024,00033,45043,85053,750a) Using a 2-year moving average, the forecast for year 6 = 3800 miles (round your response to the nearest whole number).b) If a 2-year moving average is used to make the forecast, the MAD based on this = 108.3 miles (round your response to one decimal place). (Hint: You will have only 3 years of matched data.)c) The forecast for year 6 using a weighted 2-year moving average with weights of 0.40 and 0.60 (the weight of 0.60 is for the most recent period) = 3790 miles (round your response to the nearest whole number)The MAD for the forecast developed using a weighted 2-year moving average with weights of 0.40 and 0.60= 143.3 miles (round your response to one decimal place). (Hint: You will have only 3 years of matched data)miles (round your response to the nearest whole number).d) Using exponential smoothing with a = 0.40 and the forecast for year 1 being 3, 100, the forecast for year 6 =

Forecasting is predicting the uncertainty of the future. This can be in the context of sales or…

Answered: a) Using a 2-year moving average, the…

Practical Management Science

6th Edition

ISBN:9781337406659

Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Chapter11: Simulation Models

Section: Chapter Questions

Problem 54P

See similar textbooks

Similar questions

Under what conditions might a firm use multiple forecasting methods?
The Baker Company wants to develop a budget to predict how overhead costs vary with activity levels. Management is trying to decide whether direct labor hours (DLH) or units produced is the better measure of activity for the firm. Monthly data for the preceding 24 months appear in the file P13_40.xlsx. Use regression analysis to determine which measure, DLH or Units (or both), should be used for the budget. How would the regression equation be used to obtain the budget for the firms overhead costs?
The file P13_22.xlsx contains total monthly U.S. retail sales data. While holding out the final six months of observations for validation purposes, use the method of moving averages with a carefully chosen span to forecast U.S. retail sales in the next year. Comment on the performance of your model. What makes this time series more challenging to forecast?
At the beginning of each week, a machine is in one of four conditions: 1 = excellent; 2 = good; 3 = average; 4 = bad. The weekly revenue earned by a machine in state 1, 2, 3, or 4 is 100, 90, 50, or 10, respectively. After observing the condition of the machine at the beginning of the week, the company has the option, for a cost of 200, of instantaneously replacing the machine with an excellent machine. The quality of the machine deteriorates over time, as shown in the file P10 41.xlsx. Four maintenance policies are under consideration: Policy 1: Never replace a machine. Policy 2: Immediately replace a bad machine. Policy 3: Immediately replace a bad or average machine. Policy 4: Immediately replace a bad, average, or good machine. Simulate each of these policies for 50 weeks (using at least 250 iterations each) to determine the policy that maximizes expected weekly profit. Assume that the machine at the beginning of week 1 is excellent.
The owner of a restaurant in Bloomington, Indiana, has recorded sales data for the past 19 years. He has also recorded data on potentially relevant variables. The data are listed in the file P13_17.xlsx. a. Estimate a simple regression equation involving annual sales (the dependent variable) and the size of the population residing within 10 miles of the restaurant (the explanatory variable). Interpret R-square for this regression. b. Add another explanatory variableannual advertising expendituresto the regression equation in part a. Estimate and interpret this expanded equation. How does the R-square value for this multiple regression equation compare to that of the simple regression equation estimated in part a? Explain any difference between the two R-square values. How can you use the adjusted R-squares for a comparison of the two equations? c. Add one more explanatory variable to the multiple regression equation estimated in part b. In particular, estimate and interpret the coefficients of a multiple regression equation that includes the previous years advertising expenditure. How does the inclusion of this third explanatory variable affect the R-square, compared to the corresponding values for the equation of part b? Explain any changes in this value. What does the adjusted R-square for the new equation tell you?
The file P13_42.xlsx contains monthly data on consumer revolving credit (in millions of dollars) through credit unions. a. Use these data to forecast consumer revolving credit through credit unions for the next 12 months. Do it in two ways. First, fit an exponential trend to the series. Second, use Holts method with optimized smoothing constants. b. Which of these two methods appears to provide the best forecasts? Answer by comparing their MAPE values.
The Carbondale Hospital is considering the purchase of a new ambulance. The decision will rest partly on the anticipated mileage to be driven next year. The miles driven during the past 5 years are as follows: Year Mileage miles (round your response to the nearest whole number). a) Using a 2-year moving average, the forecast for year 6 = 1 3,050 2 4,000 3 3,450 4 3,750 5 3,750
The Carbondale Hospital is considering the purchase of a new ambulance. The decision will rest partly on the anticipated mileage to be driven next year. The miles driven during the past 5 years are as follows Year Mileage a) Using a 2-year moving average, the forecast for year 6 = miles (round your response to the nearest whole number). 1 3,100 2 4,000 3 3,450 4 3,850 A 5 3,750
The Carbondale Hospital is considering the purchase of a new ambulance. The decision will rest partly on the anticipated mileage to be driven next year. The miles driven during the past 5 years are as follows: Year Mileage 1 3,050 2 4,050 a) Using a 2-year moving average, the forecast for year 6 = number). 3 3,450 4 3,800 5 3,700 miles (round your response to the nearest whole
The Carbondale Hospital is considering the purchase of a new ambulance. The decision will rest partly on the anticipated mileage to be driven next year. The miles driven during the past 5 years are as follows Year Mileage 5 3,750 a) Using a 2-year moving average, the forecast for year 6 = 3750 miles (round your response to the nearest whole number). b) If a 2-year moving average is used to make the forecast, the MAD based on this = 116.7 miles (round your response to one decimal place). (Hint: You will have only 3 years of matched data) c) The forecast for year 6 using a weighted 2-year moving average with weights of 0.35 and 0.65 (the weight of 0.65 is for the most recent period) = 3750 miles (round your response to the nearest whole number). 1 3,050 2 3,950 The MAD for the forecast developed using a weighted 2-year moving average with weights of 0.35 and 0.65 = data.) 3 3,400 3,750 miles (round your response to one decimal place) (Hint You will have only 3 years of matched
The Carbondale Hospital is considering the purchase of a new ambulance. The decision will rest partly on the anticipated mileage to be driven next year. The miles driven during the past 5 years are as follows. Year Mileage a) Using a 2-year moving average, the forecast for year 6 = 3750 miles (round your response to the nearest whole number). b) If a 2-year moving average is used to make the forecast, the MAD based on this = 116.7 miles (round your response to one decimal place). (Hint: You will have only 3 years of matched data.) c) The forecast for year 6 using a weighted 2-year moving average with weights of 0.35 and 0.65 (the weight of 0.65 is for the most recent period) = miles (round your response to the nearest whole number). 1 3,050 2 3,950 3 3,400 4 3,750 5 3,750 4
The Carbondale Hospital is considering the purchase of a new ambulance. The decision will rest partly on the anticipated mileage to be driven next year. The miles driven during the past 5 years are as follows: Year 1 2 3 4 5 Mileage 3,100 4,000 3,500 3,800 3,700 a) Using a 2-year moving average, the forecast for year 6 =______miles (round your response to the nearest whole number). b) If a 2-year moving average is used to make the forecast, the MAD based on this =____miles (round your response to onedecimal place). (Hint: You will have only 3 years of matched data.) c) The forecast for year 6 using a weighted 2-year moving average with weights of 0.45 and 0.55 (the weight of 0.55 is for the most recent period) =________miles (round your response to the nearest whole number). The MAD for the forecast developed using a weighted 2-year moving average with weights of 0.45 and 0.55=_____…

SEE MORE QUESTIONS

Recommended textbooks for you

Practical Management Science

Operations Management

ISBN:

9781337406659

Author:

WINSTON, Wayne L.

Publisher:

Cengage,

MARKETING 2018

Marketing

ISBN:

9780357033753

Author:

Pride

Publisher:

CENGAGE L

Contemporary Marketing

Marketing

ISBN:

9780357033777

Author:

Louis E. Boone, David L. Kurtz

Publisher:

Cengage Learning

Practical Management Science

Operations Management

ISBN:

9781337406659

Author:

WINSTON, Wayne L.

Publisher:

Cengage,

MARKETING 2018

Marketing

ISBN:

9780357033753

Author:

Pride

Publisher:

CENGAGE L

Contemporary Marketing

Marketing

ISBN:

9780357033777

Author:

Louis E. Boone, David L. Kurtz

Publisher:

Cengage Learning

Marketing

ISBN:

9780357033791

Author:

Pride, William M

Publisher:

South Western Educational Publishing

SEE MORE TEXTBOOKS