Answered: Starbucks' actual distribution system…

Practical Management Science

6th Edition

ISBN:9781337406659

Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Chapter13: Regression And Forecasting Models

Section13.7: Exponential Smoothing Models

Problem 29P: The file P13_29.xlsx contains monthly time series data for total U.S. retail sales of building...

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Just answers and formula. .....no need for steps.....

Attempt if you will provide answers for both parts ( a and b) ...

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Week
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
ES, a = 0.2
ATL
ES, a = 0.4
BOS
MAD
MAPE
TS
MAD
MAPE
TS
ATL
CHI
b. Evaluate the forecasts that would have been made over the 13 weeks using the overall (at the end of the 13 weeks) mean absolute
deviation, mean absolute percent error, and tracking signal as criteria. (Negative values should be indicated by a minus sign. Round
all answers to 2 decimal places. Enter "MAPE" answers as a percentage rounded to 2 decimal places.)
10.85
DAL
BOS
LA
CHI
Total
DAL
ES,a=0.4
LA
Avg of DCs

Transcribed Image Text:Starbucks' actual distribution system is much more complex, but for the purpose of our exercise let's focus on a single item that is currently distributed through five distribution centers in the United States. Our item is a logo-branded coffeemaker that is sold at some of the larger retail stores. The coffeemaker has been a steady seller over the years due to its reliability and rugged construction. Starbucks does not consider this a seasonal product, but there is some variability in demand. Demand for the product over the past 13 weeks is shown in the following table. (week-1 is the week before week 1 in the table, -2 is two weeks before week 1, etc.). Management would like you to experiment with some forecasting models to determine what should be used in a new system to be implemented. The new system is programmed to use one of two forecasting models: simple moving average or exponential smoothing. WEEK 1 6 7 9 10 11 12 2 3 45 38 40 36 24 55 42 30 46 96 34 44 50 49 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 8 Atlanta 43 34 33 55 35 32 28 20 56 46 Boston 62 25 50 40 35 32 34 41 48 54 18 60 Chicago 58 20 71 43 45 44 33 20 72 64 26 25 Dallas 42 35 40 64 44 26 42 35 62 68 63 52 LA 43 41 53 45 36 33 42 48 45 46 72 40 33 44 38 48 52 48 Total 248 155 247 247 195 167 196 182 208 243 282 246 196 227 252 174 240 232 41 50 40 38 43 42 ES, a = 0.2 Week a. Consider using a simple exponential smoothing model. In your analysis, test two alpha values, 0.2 and 0.4. When using an alpha value of 0.2, assume that the forecast for week 1 is the past three-week average (the average demand for periods -3, -2, and -1). For the model using an alpha of 0.4, assume that the forecast for week 1 is the past five-week average. (Round your answers to 2 decimal places.) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 ATL 39.67 BOS 4 32 CHI 5 54 45 48 DAL LA 13 41 52 Total

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