3. NewTech wants to consider risk and return in evaluating the following alternatives: Probability Demand .3 .5 Med. .2 Low High PW of A ($M) 6 8 PW of B ($M) 20 a. Draw the decision tree for the problem. b. Which will you select based on the expected value of each alternative's PW?
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- Determine whether or not to stock a large supply of steel. There is uncertainty in the price of steel. Based on past history the following data are available Price (future) Prob (Price) PW if stocked PW if not stocked High 0.3 100000 0 Medium 0.5 -10000 0 Low 0.2 -50000 0 What is the probability that stocking steel will result in a negative present worth (PW)?The demand for a product of Carolina Industries varies greatly from month to month. The probability distribution in the following table, based on the past two years of data, shows the company's monthly demand. Unit Demand Probability 300 400 500 600 0.20 0.30 0.35 0.15 (a) If the company bases monthly orders on the expected value of the monthly demand, what should Carolina's monthly order quantity be for this product? (b) Assume that each unit demanded generates $70 in revenue and that each unit ordered costs $50. How much will the company gain or lose in a month (indoitars) if it places an order based on your answer to part (a) and the actual demand for the item is 300 units?1. It will costs the Philippines P2,500,000 to drill a natural gas well. Operating expenses will be 10% of therevenue from the sale of natural gas from this particular well. If found, natural gas from a highly productive well will amount to 260,000 cubic feet per day. The probability of locating such a productive well, however is about 10%. If natural gas sells for P80 per thousand cubic feet, what is the EMVPw of profit to the Philippine governement? The life of the well is 10 years and MARR is 15% per year.
- A decision has been made to perform certain repairs on the outlet works of a small dam. For a particular 36-inch gate valve, there are three available alternatives: A. Leave the valve as it is. B. Repair the valve. C. Replace the valve. If the valve is left as it is, the probability of a failure of the valve seats, over the life of the project, is 60%; the probability of failure of the valve stem is 50%; and of failure of the valve body is 40%. If the valve is repaired, the probability of a failure of the seats, over the life of the project, is 40%; of failure of the stem is 30%; and of failure of the body is 20%. If the valve is replaced, the probability of a failure of the seats, over the life of the project, is 30%; of failure of the stem is 20%; and of failure of the body is 10%. The present worth of cost of future repairs and service disruption of a failure of the seats is $10,000; the present worth of cost of a failure of the stem is $20,000; the present worth of cost of a…A project has an uncertain first cost and useful life. What is the expected value for each variable? First Cost $300,000 400,000 600,000 Probability 0.2 0.5 0.3 Useful Life 4 5 6 0.3 0.5 0.2 ProbabilityA manager has compiled estimated costs for various capacity alternatives but is reluctant to assign probabilities to the states of nature. Assuming the values in the payoff table are estimated costs and the goal is to minimize expected costs. STATE OF NATURE A $ Alternative B с # 1 multiple choice Alternative A Alternative B Alternative C None 20 120 100 * #2 140 80 40 *Cost in $ thousands. a. Is there any alternative that would never be appropriate in terms of minimizing expected cost? b. For what range of P(2) would alternative A be the best choice if the goal is to minimize expected cost? c. For what range of P (1) would alternative A be the best choice if the goal is to minimize expected cost?
- What will be Hale’s TV Production’s decision based on the following criteria:a. MAXIMAXb. MAXIMINc. MINIMAX REGRETd. EXPECTED VALUEe. Construct the decision tree for this problem and indicate the decision based onthe decision tree analysis.The Enrico Oil Company is deciding whether to drill for oil on a tract. The company estimates thatthe project would cost $8 million today. The company estimates that once drilled, the oil willgenerate positive net cash flow of $4 million a year for the next 4 years. The company recognizes,however, that if it waits 2 years, it could cost $9 million, but there is a 90% chance that the nextcash flow will be $4.2 million and there is a 10% chance that the net cash flow will be $2.2 milliona year for 4 years. Assume that all cash flows are discounted at 10%. Required:i. If the company opts to drill today, what is the project’s NPV? ii. Evaluate whether it would be worthwhile to wait 2 years before deciding whether todrill?SHOW IN EXCEL SHOW EACH PROCESS IN EXCEL Gasoline EV Purchase Cost $50,000 $80,000 Annual - Maintenance $5,000 $2,500 Annual Fuel $7,500 $3,000 Service Life Probability Service Life Probability 55% 52% 6 10% 65% 7 25% 7 10% 8 35 % 8 25% 9 20% 9 50 % 10 5 % 10 8% a) (5 Points) What is the expected value of the present worth and expected value of the standard deviation of each option? b) (5 Points) Which option should be chosen, and why? c) (5 Points) If the company' s MARR is 20%, which option would they choose and why? d) (5 Points) What value of the MARR makes the company indifferent between choosing gasoline or electric vehicles?
- NewTech wants to consider risk and return in evaluating the following alternatives: c. What alternative will you choose based onc.1 MAXIMAX?c.2 MAXIMIN?c.3 MINIMAX REGRET?Spring 2024 An energy efficiency project has a first cost of $400,000, a life of 10 years, and no salvage value. Assume that the interest rate is 10%. The most likely value for annual savings is $50,000. The optimistic value for annual savings is $80,000 with a probability of 0.2. The pessimistic value is $40,000 with a probability of 0.25. a. What is the expected annual savings and the expected PW? b. Compute the PW for the pessimistic, most likely, and optimistic estimates of the annual savings. What is the expected PW?Please no written by hand A bank has two $10 million one-year loans. Possible outcomes are as follows: Outcome Neither loan defaults Loan 1 defaults, loan 2 does not default Loan 2 defaults, loan 1 does not default Both loans default Probablity 97.5% 1.25% 1.25% 0.00%.If a default occurs, losses can use normal distribution with mean $5 million and standard deviation $1 million to approximate. If a loan does not default, a profit of $0.2 million is made. (a). What is the VaR for of each project when the confidence level (a). What is the VaR for of each project when the confidence level is 99%? (b). What is the expected shortfall of each project when the confidence level is 99%? (c). What is the VaR for a portfolio consisting of the two investments when the confidence level is 99%?) (d). What is the expected shortfall for a portfolio consisting of the two investments when the confidence level is 99%?