Practical Management Science
6th Edition
ISBN: 9781337406659
Author: WINSTON, Wayne L.
Publisher: Cengage,
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Chapter 13.7, Problem 28P
The file P13_28.xlsx contains monthly retail sales of U.S. liquor stores.
- a. Is seasonality present in these data? If so, characterize the seasonality pattern.
- b. Use Winters’ method to
forecast this series with smoothing constants α = β = 0.1 and γ = 0.3. Does the forecast series seem to track the seasonal pattern well? What are your forecasts for the next 12 months?
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Consider the following set of time series sales data for a growing company over the past 8 months:
Month
Sales
1
15
2
13
3
18
4
22
5
20
6
23
7
22
8
21
Construct a time series plot. What type of pattern exists?
Develop a forecast for the next month using the averaging method.
Develop a forecast for the next month using the naïve last-value method.
Develop a forecast for the next month using a four-month moving average method.
Use the Excel Functions SLOPE and INTERCEPT to write the linear regression prediction equation with Months as the independent variable and sales as the dependent variable.
Use the prediction equation to estimate the number of sales in month 9.
Consider the following gasoline sales time series. If needed, round your answers to two decimal digits.
Sales (1,000s of gallons)
37
21
19
23
18
16
20
18
22
20
Week
1
2
9
10
11
12
15
22
(a) Show the exponential smoothing forecasts using a 0.1, and a 0.2.
Exponential
Smoothing
Week
13
(b) Applying the MSE measure of forecast accuracy, would you prefer a smoothing constant of a=0.1 or a 0.2 for the gasoline sales time series?
An-Select your answersmoothing constant provides the more accurate forecast, with an overall MSE of
(c) Are the results the same if you apply MAE as the measure of accuracy?
An-Select your answersmoothing constant provides the more accurate forecast, with an overall MAE of
(d) What are the results if MAPE is used?
An Select your answersmoothing constant provides the more accurate forecast, with an overall MAPE of
0=0.1
a=0.2
Chapter 13 Solutions
Practical Management Science
Ch. 13.3 - The file P13_01.xlsx contains the monthly number...Ch. 13.3 - The file P13_02.xlsx contains five years of...Ch. 13.3 - The file P13_03.xlsx contains monthly data on...Ch. 13.3 - The file P13_04.xlsx lists the monthly sales for a...Ch. 13.3 - Management of a home appliance store wants to...Ch. 13.3 - Do the sales prices of houses in a given community...Ch. 13.3 - Prob. 7PCh. 13.3 - The management of a technology company is trying...Ch. 13.3 - Prob. 9PCh. 13.3 - Sometimes curvature in a scatterplot can be fit...
Ch. 13.4 - Prob. 12PCh. 13.4 - A trucking company wants to predict the yearly...Ch. 13.4 - An antique collector believes that the price...Ch. 13.4 - Stock market analysts are continually looking for...Ch. 13.4 - Suppose that a regional express delivery service...Ch. 13.4 - The owner of a restaurant in Bloomington, Indiana,...Ch. 13.6 - The file P13_19.xlsx contains the weekly sales of...Ch. 13.6 - The file P13_20.xlsx contains the monthly sales of...Ch. 13.6 - The file P13_21.xlsx contains the weekly sales of...Ch. 13.6 - The file P13_22.xlsx contains total monthly U.S....Ch. 13.7 - You have been assigned to forecast the number of...Ch. 13.7 - Simple exponential smoothing with = 0.3 is being...Ch. 13.7 - The file P13_25.xlsx contains the quarterly...Ch. 13.7 - The file P13_26.xlsx contains the monthly number...Ch. 13.7 - The file P13_27.xlsx contains yearly data on the...Ch. 13.7 - The file P13_28.xlsx contains monthly retail sales...Ch. 13.7 - The file P13_29.xlsx contains monthly time series...Ch. 13.7 - A version of simple exponential smoothing can be...Ch. 13 - Prob. 31PCh. 13 - Prob. 32PCh. 13 - Management of a home appliance store would like to...Ch. 13 - A small computer chip manufacturer wants to...Ch. 13 - The file P13_35.xlsx contains the amount of money...Ch. 13 - Prob. 36PCh. 13 - Prob. 37PCh. 13 - Prob. 39PCh. 13 - The Baker Company wants to develop a budget to...Ch. 13 - Prob. 41PCh. 13 - The file P13_42.xlsx contains monthly data on...Ch. 13 - Prob. 43PCh. 13 - Prob. 44PCh. 13 - Prob. 45PCh. 13 - Prob. 46PCh. 13 - Prob. 49P
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