Month Demand 1 45 2 48 3 43 4 48 5 49 6 54 7 47 8 50 9 46 10 47 Using the table above, calculate two forecasts using the following method:- i. First, for periods 4 through 10, develop the exponentially smoothed forecasts using a forecast for period 3 (F3) of 45.0 and an alpha of 0.4.  ii. Calculate the weighted moving average for periods 4 through 10, using weights of .70, .20, and .10, with 0.70 applied to the most recent data.  iii. Calculate the mean absolute deviation (MAD) for each forecasting procedure. Which forecasting procedure would you select? Why?

Practical Management Science
6th Edition
ISBN:9781337406659
Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Chapter13: Regression And Forecasting Models
Section13.7: Exponential Smoothing Models
Problem 27P: The file P13_27.xlsx contains yearly data on the proportion of Americans under the age of 18 living...
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Month Demand
1 45
2 48
3 43
4 48
5 49
6 54
7 47
8 50
9 46
10 47
Using the table above, calculate two forecasts using the following method:-
i. First, for periods 4 through 10, develop the exponentially smoothed forecasts
using a forecast for period 3 (F3) of 45.0 and an alpha of 0.4. 
ii. Calculate the weighted moving average for periods 4 through 10, using weights of
.70, .20, and .10, with 0.70 applied to the most recent data. 
iii. Calculate the mean absolute deviation (MAD) for each forecasting procedure.
Which forecasting procedure would you select? Why?
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