Spreadsheet Modeling & Decision Analysis: A Practical Introduction to Business Analytics (MindTap Course List)
8th Edition
ISBN: 9781305947412
Author: Cliff Ragsdale
Publisher: Cengage Learning
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The manager wants to forecast the month 6's sales using the following historical data:
Months
Month 1
Month 2
Month 3
Month 4
Month 5
Sales
20
25
32
35
38
Please use the weight 0.45 for Month 5, weight 0.25 for Month 4, weight 0.2 for Month 3, and
weight 0.1 for Month 2 to use the weighted moving average to forecast the demand of Month 5.
The National Revenue Authority (NRA), is charged with the collection of tax revenues for the National Treasury. Each year they are given a target to achieve. However, from past experience the Authority has realized the actual collections achieved is dependent on the performance of the economy. This has gotten the Commissioner worried to such an extent that he has summoned a meeting of all the Unit Directors to consider how well to incorporate this uncertainty into the Authority’s decision making and planning. Being the Director of Planning, you have been tasked with the guidance of the whole team.
Required:
a) Advise on the procedure generally followed in the decision making process.
b) Explain clearly the key activities involved in the risk assessment process.
c) Comment on the relationship between decision making and risk analysis.
d) Briefly explain the characteristics of the main decision types and which one would be more at play in this situation.
The manager wants to forecast the month 6's sales using the following historical data:
Months
Month 1
Month 2
Month 3
Month 4
Month 5
Sales
20
25
32
35
38
Please use the weight 0.45 for Month 5, weight 0.25 for Month 4, weight 0.2 for Month 3, and
weight 0.1 for Month 2 to use the weighted moving average to forecast the demand of Month 6.
Month 5 = 0.1*(25) +0.2*(32) + .25* (35) divided by 0.1 +0.2 +1.25 -17.65/0.55 = 32.09
Month 6= 0.1* (25) +0.2* (32) +0.25 (35) +0.45* (38) divided by 0.1 +0.2+0.45 = 34.75
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