Concept explainers
The five most common words appearing in spam emails are shipping!, today!, here!,
available, and fingertips! (Andy Greenberg, “The Most Common Words In Spam Email,”
Forbes website, March 17, 2010). Many spam filters separate spam from ham (email not
considered to be spam) through application of bayes’ theorem. Suppose that for one email
account, 1 in every 10 messages is spam and the proportions of spam messages that have
the five most common words in spam email are given below.
shipping! .051
today! .045
here! .034
available .014
fingertips! .014
Also suppose that the proportions of ham messages that have these words are
shipping! .0015
today! .0022
here! .0022
available .0041
fingertips! .0011
a. If a message includes the word shipping!, what is the probability the message is spam?
If a message includes the word shipping!, what is the probability the message is ham?
Should messages that include the word shipping! be flagged as spam?
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