Your midrange guess as to the amount of oil in a prospective field is 10 million barrels, but, in fact, there is a 50% chance that the amount of oil is 15 million barrels and a 50% chance of 5 million barrels. If the actual amount of oil is 15 million barrels, the present value of the cash flows from drilling will be $8 million. If the amount is only 5 million barrels, the present value will be only $2 million. It costs $3 million to drill the well. Suppose that a seismic test costing $100,000 can verify the amount of oil under the ground. Is it worth paying for the test? Use a decision tree to justify your answer.
Your midrange guess as to the amount of oil in a prospective field is 10 million barrels, but, in fact, there is a 50% chance that the amount of oil is 15 million barrels and a 50% chance of 5 million barrels. If the actual amount of oil is 15 million barrels, the present value of the cash flows from drilling will be $8 million. If the amount is only 5 million barrels, the present value will be only $2 million. It costs $3 million to drill the well. Suppose that a seismic test costing $100,000 can verify the amount of oil under the ground. Is it worth paying for the test? Use a decision tree to justify your answer.
Intermediate Financial Management (MindTap Course List)
13th Edition
ISBN:9781337395083
Author:Eugene F. Brigham, Phillip R. Daves
Publisher:Eugene F. Brigham, Phillip R. Daves
Chapter14: Real Options
Section: Chapter Questions
Problem 4MC
Related questions
Question
Your midrange guess as to the amount of oil in a prospective field is 10 million barrels, but, in fact, there is a 50% chance that the amount of oil is 15 million barrels and a 50% chance of 5 million barrels. If the actual amount of oil is 15 million barrels, the present value of the cash flows from drilling will be $8 million. If the amount is only 5 million barrels, the present value will be only $2 million. It costs $3 million to drill the well. Suppose that a seismic test costing $100,000 can verify the amount of oil under the ground. Is it worth paying for the test? Use a decision tree to justify your answer.
Expert Solution
This question has been solved!
Explore an expertly crafted, step-by-step solution for a thorough understanding of key concepts.
This is a popular solution!
Trending now
This is a popular solution!
Step by step
Solved in 2 steps
Knowledge Booster
Learn more about
Need a deep-dive on the concept behind this application? Look no further. Learn more about this topic, finance and related others by exploring similar questions and additional content below.Recommended textbooks for you
Intermediate Financial Management (MindTap Course…
Finance
ISBN:
9781337395083
Author:
Eugene F. Brigham, Phillip R. Daves
Publisher:
Cengage Learning
Intermediate Financial Management (MindTap Course…
Finance
ISBN:
9781337395083
Author:
Eugene F. Brigham, Phillip R. Daves
Publisher:
Cengage Learning