Your company needs to make an important decision thatinvolves large monetary consequences. You have listedall of the possible outcomes and the monetary payoffsand costs from all outcomes and all potential decisions.You want to use the EMV criterion, but you realize thatthis requires probabilities and you see no way to findthe required probabilities. What can you do?
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Your company needs to make an important decision that
involves large monetary consequences. You have listed
all of the possible outcomes and the monetary payoffs
and costs from all outcomes and all potential decisions.
You want to use the EMV criterion, but you realize that
this requires probabilities and you see no way to find
the required probabilities. What can you do?
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- Using the following table, perform ALL FIVE of the techniques for Decision Making under Uncertainty: Maximax, Maximin, Hurwicz Realism (α = 0.7), LaPlace and Minimax Regret. Use the .50 for the probability of a Good Economy and .50 for the probability of a Poor Economy. You must show your work. STATE OF NATURE DECISION ALTERNATIVE GOOD ECONOMY POOR ECONOMY Sotck market 80,000 -20,000 Bonds 30,000 20,000 CDs 23,000 23,000Using the following table, perform ALL FIVE of the techniques for Decision Making under Uncertainty: Maximax, Maximin, Hurwicz Realism (α = 0.7), LaPlace and Minimax Regret. Use the .50 for the probability of a Good Economy and .50 for the probability of a Poor Economy. You must show your work for obtaining the points. STATE OF NATURE DECISION ALTERNATIVE GOOD ECONOMY POOR ECONOMY Sotck market 80,000 -20,000 Bonds 30,000 20,000 CDs 23,000 23,000Sometimes it is possible for a company to influencethe uncertain outcomes in a favorable direction.Suppose Acme could, by an early marketing blitz,change the probabilities of “great,” “fair,” and “awful”from their current values to 0.75, 0.15, and 0.10. Interms of EMV, how much would the company bewilling to pay for such a blitz?
- A market research firm has agreed, for a fee, to analyse the demand for the start-up's product and issue a report predicting whether the new start-up will be a success or a failure before the venture capitalist can make his investment decision. a) Assuming the VC is risk-neutral, what is the maximum amount it should pay for the market research? Assume that the market research's prediction is correct. b) What are the risk profiles associated with the venture capitalist's investment decision when he uses the market research with perfect predictions? How are these risk profiles compared to the risk profiles when the venture capitalist does not use the market research? Why?Use graphical sensitivity analysis to determine the range of probabilities for which each decision alternative has the largest expected value. The payoffs represent projected profits. Write clear conclusion. Round values of p to 3 decimal places.You are planning to rent a car for a one-week vacation. You have the option of buying an insurance that costs $80 dollars for a week. If you do not purchase insurance, you would be personally liable for any damages. You anticipate that a minor collision will cost $2,000, whereas a major accident might cost $16,000 in repairs. Develop a payoff table for this situation. What decision should you make using each strategy? Aggressive (Optimistic) Conservative (Pessimistic) Opportunity Loss You have recently read in a magazine that that the probability of a major accident is 0.05% and that the probability of a minor collision is 0.18%. Construct a decision tree and identify the best expected value decision.
- You often hear about the trade-off between risk and reward. Is this trade-off part of decision making under uncertainty when the decision maker uses theEMV criterion? For example, how does this work in investment decisions?We are thinking of filming the Don Harnett story. Weknow that if the film is a flop, we will lose $4 million, andif the film is a success, we will earn $15 million. Beforehand,we believe that there is a 10% chance that the Don Harnettstory will be a hit. Before filming, we have the option ofpaying the noted movie critic Roger Alert $1 million for hisview of the film. In the past, Alert has predicted 60% of allactual hits to be hits and 90% of all actual flops to be flops.We want to maximize our expected profits. Use a decisiontree to determine our best strategy. What is EVSI? What isEVPI?On Monday, a certain stock closed at $10 per share. Before the stock market opens on Tuesday, you expect the stock to close at $9, $10, or $11 per share, with respective probabilities 0.3, 0.3, and 0.4. Looking ahead to Wednesday, you expect the stock to close 10 percent lower, unchanged, or 10 percent higher than Tuesday’s close, with the following probabilities. Tuesday's Close 10 Percent Lower Unchanged 10 Percent Higher $9 0.4 0.3 0.3 10 0.2 0.2 0.6 11 0.1 0.2 0.7 Early on Tuesday, you are directed to buy 100 shares of the stock before Thursday. All purchases are made at the end of the day, at the known closing price for that day, so your only options are to buy at the end of Tuesday or at the end of Wednesday. You wish to determine the optimal strategy for whether to buy on Tuesday or defer the purchase until Wednesday, given the Tuesday closing price, to minimize the expected purchase price. Develop and evaluate a decision tree. a-1. Determine the optimal…
- 2. Using the following table, perform ALL FIVE of the techniques for Decision Making under Uncertainty: Maximax, Maximin, Hurwicz Realism (α = 0.7), LaPlace and Minimax Regret. You must show your work for obtaining the points. PROFIT ($) STRONG MARKET FAIR MARKET POOR MARKET Large facility 550,000 110,000 -310,000 Medium-sized facility 300,00 129,000 -100,000 Small facility 200,000 100,000 -32,000 No facility 0 0 0You are considering three investment alternatives for some spare cash: Old Reliable Corporation stock (A1), Fly-By-Nite Air Cargo Company stock (A2), and a federally insured savings certificate (A3). You expect the economy will either "boom" (N1) or “bust” (N2), and you estimate that a boom is more likely (p1 = 0.6) than a bust (p2 = 0.4). Outcomes for the three alternatives are expected to be (1) $2000 in boom or $500 in bust for ORC; (2) $6000 in boom but $-5000 (loss) in bust for FBN: and (3) $1200 for the certificate in either case. Set up a payoff table (decision matrix) for this problem and show which of it Alternative maximizes expected value.How does the presence of uncertainty affect the usefulness of the model?