Which phases should be carried out by the analyst before the probabilities are quantified? A. Motivating. B. Structuring. C. Conditioning. D. Direct assessment.

What predictive model should be used for "Trust" and please explain why you choose that model?

The American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) On-Line Discount Broker Survey polls members on their experiences with discount brokers. As part of the survey, members were asked to rate the quality of the speed of execution with their broker as well as provide an overall satisfaction rating for electronic trades. Possible responses (scores) were no opinion (0), unsatisfied (1), somewhat satisfied (2), satisfied (3), and very satisfied (4). For each broker summary scores were computed by calculating a weighted average of the scores provided by each respondent. Suppose a portion of the survey results follow. Brokerage Speed Satisfaction A 3.4 3.5 B 3.3 3.5 C 3.4 3.9 D 3.6 3.6 E 3.2 2.9 F 3.8 2.8 G 3.8 3.6 H 2.6 2.6 I 2.7 2.3 J 4.0 4.0 K 2.5 2.5 These ratings data on x = the quality of the speed of execution and y = overall satisfaction with electronic trades provided the estimated regression equation ŷ = 0.243 + 0.896x. At the 0.05 level of…

You have inherited a lottery ticket which might be a $10,000 winner. You have a 0.25 chance of winning the $10,000 and a 0.75 chance of winning $0. You have an opportunity to sell the lottery ticket for $2,500 - What is your expected return and what should you do if are risk averse?

Practice not graded

A manager is building a simulation model to project future profits. A simulation model template is setup for the task. Simulated Revenue ? Simulated Simulated Material Cost ? Labor Profit Cost ? ? Question 1. She believes that the future revenue will be either $12M, $13M, or $14.5M depending on the future demand being low, medium, or high, respectively. According to her market analysis, the future demand will be low, medium, or high with a probability of 0.3, 0.5, and 0.2, respectively. What is the appropriate @Risk function, including its arguments, that reflects her belief about future revenue?

Ultimate Gaming is trying to figure out which game they should release next quarter among four possible games. There is uncertainty when it comes to projecting profitability since it depends on the state of the gaming market 6 months in the future. A profit estimate is provided for good v. bad gaming market for the four possible games. UG estimates that the market will be good with a 65% chance.  Alternatives| Bad Market | Good Market Game 1.               4.1                      5.8 Game 2                2.5                      7.1 Game 3                5.4                    4.9 Game 4                4.5                    5.3   UG believes that a game turning into a blockbuster is related to pre-release marketing events. Each event results in a success (blockbuster) or a loss (regular profitbility). UG has 6 marketing events and believes there is a 15% chance of success and having a block buster.  What are the chances that exactly 2 of the events will result in a blockbuster? What…

ANOTHER EXAMPLE• Consider the following information on returnsand probabilities: State          Probability        X         ZBoom             .25              15%     10%Normal          .60              10%      9%Recession      .15               5%       10% • What are the expected return and standarddeviation for a portfolio with an investmentof $6,000 in asset X and $4,000 in asset Z?

Bullying,” according to noted expert Dan Olweus, “poisons the educational environment and affects the learning of every child.” Bullying and victimization are evident as early as preschool, with the problem peaking in middle school. Suppose you are interested in the emotional well-being of not only the victims but also bystanders, bullies, and those who bully but who are also victims (bully-victims). You decide to measure anxiety in a group of bullies and a group of victims using an 18-item, 5-point anxiety scale. Assume scores on the anxiety scale are normally distributed and that the variances of the anxiety scores are the same among bullies and victims. The group of 23 bullies scored an average of 40.1 with a sample standard deviation of 10 on the anxiety scale. The group of 28 victims scored an average of 46.8 with a sample standard deviation of 11 on the same scale. You do not have any presupposed assumptions about whether bullies or victims will be more anxious, so you formulate…

c. Develop the least squares estimated regression equation. Enter negative value as negative number. Satisfaction 0.32 + 0.8879 Speed (to 4 decimals) d. Provide an interpretation for the slope of the estimated regression equation. The slope of the estimated regression line is approximately 0.8879 (to 4 decimals). So, a one unit increase v in the speed of execution rating will increase the overall satisfaction rating by approximately 1.2 points (to 1 decimal). e. Suppose Vanguard Brokerage Services developed new software to increase their speed of execution rating. If the new software is able to increase their speed of execution rating from the current value of 2.4 to the average speed of execution rating for the other 10 brokerage firms that were surveyed, what value would you predict for the overall satisfaction rating? (to 3 decimals)