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Definitions Moving average: - A forecast which is made by taking the average or weighted average of…

Answered: Using your own words, describe the…

Practical Management Science

6th Edition

ISBN:9781337406659

Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Chapter2: Introduction To Spreadsheet Modeling

Section: Chapter Questions

Problem 20P: Julie James is opening a lemonade stand. She believes the fixed cost per week of running the stand...

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Briefly describe the steps that are used to develop a forecasting system. Using a forecasting problem, illustrate each of these steps. Which step do you think is most important? Why?
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Justify the trade-off between responsiveness and consistency in a time-series forecasting system.
Given the table below, complete the missing cell values applying the Exponential Smoothing method of forecasting and Mean Absolute Deviation. Answer also the other 2 related questions below the table. Numbers with decimal should take 2 decimal places. Actual Quarter Tonnage Unloaded 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 175 160 170 160 160 170 180 200 Forecast for a=3 175 175.0 170.5 167.2 165.1 166.6 170.6 Sum of absolute deviation = Absolute Deviation for a = .3 Other questions: (1) What is the MAD for a = .3? (2) Which smoothing constant would you prefer? 0.00 15.00 0.50 10.35 4.93 13.45 29.41 80.89 Forecast for a = .6 175 166.0 168.4 163.4 161.3 166.5 174.6 Absolute Deviation for a = .6 0.00 15.00 4.00 8.40 3.36 8.66 13.46 25.38
Briefly mention the five characteristics of data patterns in time series method of forecasting.
What three methods are used to determine the accuracy of any given forecasting method? How would you determine whether time-series regression or exponential smoothing is better in a specific application?
What is the key difference between weighted moving average, simple moving average and the naive approaches to forecasting? Please, be concise.
Explain different forecasting techniques like moving averages, exponential smoothing, regression etc.
How would you choose the appropriate number of factors to use in a forecasting model and how would you build a factor augmented VAR.
One forecasting model was used to forecast demand for a product. The forecasts and the demand are shown in the table below. Use two decimals in your answer. Actual Forecast 1 40 41 2 35 38 3 38 35 4 33 30 The Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) is O 0.5 2.5 O 1.48 7.01
Define time-series forecasting model and give examples.
The following monthly sales of chocolate boxes (in thousands of AUS dollars) have been recorded for January, February, March, and April, respectively: 9.5, 8, 9, 9. Examining the forecasting accuracy for the month of April only: Explain which of the following forecasting method would you recommend: (i) the Naïve method, (ii) the Average method, or (iii) the Simple exponential smoothing method (assuming alpha= 0.8 and initial state (in December) of 8.5)?

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Using your own words, describe the drawbacks of the moving average forecasting model and the drawbacks of the nalve forecasting model. Provide an example to contrast these two methods.