uppose that we have test for lung cancer, which correctly identifies those with the cancer 70 % of the time, and mistakenly identifies those without the cancer 5 % of the time. In the cohort of interest, the rate of this cancer is somewhat low: 0.9 %. Find the probability -- a number between 0 and 1 -- that someone diagnosed (testing positive) with this test actually has lung cancer.

A First Course in Probability (10th Edition)
10th Edition
ISBN:9780134753119
Author:Sheldon Ross
Publisher:Sheldon Ross
Chapter1: Combinatorial Analysis
Section: Chapter Questions
Problem 1.1P: a. How many different 7-place license plates are possible if the first 2 places are for letters and...
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Suppose that we have test for lung cancer, which correctly identifies those with the cancer 70 % of the time, and mistakenly identifies those without the cancer 5 % of the time. In the cohort of interest, the rate of this cancer is somewhat low: 0.9 %. Find the probability -- a number between 0 and 1 -- that someone diagnosed (testing positive) with this test actually has lung cancer.
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