The observed annual maximum runoff, X, in the Kızılırmak River has been modelled by a normal distribution with parameters, µx = 256.7 m³/sec and ox = 191 m³/sec. a) Compute the probability that X > 400 m³/sec according to the normal distribution model. b) If X is now assumed to be lognormally distributed, find the parameters of this lognormal distribution and again compute the probability that X > 400 m³/sec according to the lognormal model. c) Compare the probabilities you have computed according to this two models. Why are the results different? Comment.

College Algebra
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ISBN:9781938168383
Author:Jay Abramson
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Chapter6: Exponential And Logarithmic Functions
Section6.8: Fitting Exponential Models To Data
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Problem 5
The observed annual maximum runoff, X, in the Kızılırmak River has been modelled by a normal
distribution with parameters, µx = 256.7 m³/sec and ox = 191 m³/sec.
a) Compute the probability that X > 400 m³/sec according to the normal distribution model.
b) If X is now assumed to be lognormally distributed, find the parameters of this lognormal
distribution and again compute the probability that X > 400 m³/sec according to the lognormal
model.
c) Compare the probabilities you have computed according to this two models. Why are the results
different? Comment.
Transcribed Image Text:Problem 5 The observed annual maximum runoff, X, in the Kızılırmak River has been modelled by a normal distribution with parameters, µx = 256.7 m³/sec and ox = 191 m³/sec. a) Compute the probability that X > 400 m³/sec according to the normal distribution model. b) If X is now assumed to be lognormally distributed, find the parameters of this lognormal distribution and again compute the probability that X > 400 m³/sec according to the lognormal model. c) Compare the probabilities you have computed according to this two models. Why are the results different? Comment.
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