The number of heart surgeries performed at Heartville General Hospital has increased steadily over the past several years. The hospital's administration is seeking the best method to forecast the demand for such surgeries in year 6. The data for the past five years are shown below. Year 1 2 3 4 5 Demand 42 46 51 55 60 The hospital's administration is considering the following forecasting methods. Begin error measurement in year 3, so all methods are compared for the same years. i. Exponential smoothing, with α = 0.6. Let the initial forecast for year 1 be 42, the same as the actual demand. ii. Exponential smoothing, with α = 0.9. Let the initial forecast for year 1 be 42, the same as the actual demand. iii. Trend projection with regression. iv. Two-year moving average. v. Two-year weighted moving average, using weights 0.6 and 0.4, with the more recent data given more weight. Part 2 If MAD LOADING... is the performance criterion chosen by the administration, which forecasting method should it choose? ▼ Exponential smoothing with alpha equals 0.6Exponential smoothing with α=0.6 Exponential smoothing with alpha equals 0.9Exponential smoothing with α=0.9 Trend projection with regressionTrend projection with regression Two dash year moving averageTwo-year moving average Two dash year weighted moving average

MATLAB: An Introduction with Applications

6th Edition

ISBN:9781119256830

Author:Amos Gilat

Publisher:Amos Gilat

Chapter1: Starting With Matlab

Section: Chapter Questions

Problem 1P

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Question

The number of heart surgeries performed at Heartville General Hospital has increased steadily over the past several years. The hospital's administration is seeking the best method to forecast the demand for such surgeries in year 6. The data for the past five years are shown below.

Year	1	2	3	4	5
Demand	42	46	51	55	60

The hospital's administration is considering the following forecasting methods. Begin error measurement in year 3, so all methods are compared for the same years.

i.	Exponential smoothing, with α = 0.6. Let the initial forecast for year 1 be 42, the same as the actual demand.
ii.	Exponential smoothing, with α = 0.9. Let the initial forecast for year 1 be 42, the same as the actual demand.
iii.	Trend projection with regression.
iv.	Two-year moving average.
v.	Two-year weighted moving average, using weights 0.6 and 0.4, with the more recent data given more weight.