MATLAB: An Introduction with Applications
MATLAB: An Introduction with Applications
6th Edition
ISBN: 9781119256830
Author: Amos Gilat
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons Inc
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The number of heart surgeries performed at Heartville General Hospital has increased steadily over the past several years. The​ hospital's administration is seeking the best method to forecast the demand for such surgeries in year 6. The data for the past five years are shown below.
                                                                                  
Year
1
2
3
4
5
Demand
42
46
51
55
60
 
The​ hospital's administration is considering the following forecasting methods. Begin error measurement in year​ 3, so all methods are compared for the same years.
 
i.
Exponential​ smoothing, with
α
​= 0.6. Let the initial forecast for year 1 be
42​,
the same as the actual demand.
ii.
Exponential​ smoothing, with
α
​= 0.9. Let the initial forecast for year 1 be
42​,
the same as the actual demand.
iii.
Trend projection with regression.
iv.
​Two-year moving average.
v.
​Two-year weighted moving​ average, using weights 0.6 and​ 0.4, with the more recent data given more weight.
Part 2
If
MAD
LOADING...
is the performance criterion chosen by the​ administration, which forecasting method should it​ choose?
 
Exponential smoothing with alpha equals 0.6Exponential smoothing with α=0.6
Exponential smoothing with alpha equals 0.9Exponential smoothing with α=0.9
Trend projection with regressionTrend projection with regression
Two dash year moving averageTwo-year moving average
Two dash year weighted moving average
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