Question type: ForecastingabiiiiiiivVThe monthly sales for Otter Batteries, Inc., were as follows:Plot the monthly sales data.Forecast January sales of the next year using each of the following:Naive method.A-3month moving average.A 3-month weighted average using .2, .3, and.5, with the heaviest weights applied to the most recent months.Exponential smoothing using an alpha= .5 and a September forecast of 70.A trend projection.X123456789101112MonthJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecSales30503066706560708099110120

XSales13025033046657066576087098010991111012120

Answered: The monthly sales for Otter Batteries,…

Practical Management Science

6th Edition

ISBN:9781337406659

Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Chapter13: Regression And Forecasting Models

Section: Chapter Questions

Problem 42P: The file P13_42.xlsx contains monthly data on consumer revolving credit (in millions of dollars)...

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The file P13_42.xlsx contains monthly data on consumer revolving credit (in millions of dollars) through credit unions. a. Use these data to forecast consumer revolving credit through credit unions for the next 12 months. Do it in two ways. First, fit an exponential trend to the series. Second, use Holts method with optimized smoothing constants. b. Which of these two methods appears to provide the best forecasts? Answer by comparing their MAPE values.
Q1) Forecasting is both art and science. Describe the situations where we use Qualitative forecasting techniques and quantitative forecasting techniques
Required: Using 2-months moving average forecast sales from 5 to 11 months Using 4-months weighted moving average forecast sales from 4 to 12 months, use 3,2,1 weights with the heaviest weight applied to the most recent months. Forecast sales for January-2018 under above two method Forecast sales for January-2018 under exponential smoothing approach
It wouldnt let me take a screenshot of the table so I had to copy and paste it in here. My question is: How do you Calculate a moving average forecast using the last 2 and 4 dates of stay. What is the prediction for 7/1/2021 for each technique? Discussion Question 1 - 200 room hotel Forecasts MA 2 Errors MA 4 Errors ES (0.8) Errors ES (0.5) Errors Date Day of Week Rooms Sold MA 2 MA 4 ES (0.8) ES (0.5) AE APE AE APE AE APE AE APE 6/1/2021 Tuesday 123 6/2/2021 Wednesday 109 6/3/2021 Thursday 140 6/4/2021 Friday 199 6/5/2021 Saturday 179 6/6/2021 Sunday 140 6/7/2021 Monday 117 6/8/2021 Tuesday 132 6/9/2021 Wednesday 108 6/10/2021 Thursday 151…
2. The AirGo is the largest publicly listed low budget airlines company. On the negative side for the company, which spent billions of dollars in development costs, is the consistently negative cash flow due to poor prediction of its passengers. Question: Airlines company approaches you to suggest possible methods for an effective Forecast and it's Monitoring & Controlling. Help the airlines for the better prediction of its passengers.
Month Demand Sept. 78 Oct. 80 Nov. 77 Dec. 85 Jan. Based on the time series data presented above, do the forecasts using 2-month moving average (2-MA) and single exponential smoothing (SES) with a = 0.4, and answer the following questions: %3D (i) What is the mean absolute deviation (MAD) for 2-MA? (ii) What is the mean absolute deviation (MAD) for SES a = 0.4 ? (iii) Based on what you got, which method is more accurate?
22. Handy, Inc., produces a solar-powered electronic calculator that has experienced the following monthly sales history for the first four months of the year, in thousands of units: 23.3 March January February 30.3 72.3 April 15.5 a. If the forecast for January was 25, determine the one-step-ahead forecasts for February through May using exponential smoothing with a smoothing con- stant of a = .15. b. Repeat the calculation in part (a) for a value of a forecasts do you observe? c. Compute the MSES for the forecasts you obtained in parts (a) and (b) for February through April. Which value of a gave more accurate forecasts, based on the MSE? .40. What difference in the
3. A mobile phone store owner wants to predict the demand for mobile phones in October based on the following historical sales data: Month- April May June. July August September Number of phones sold. 100, 140- 110. 150. 120. 160- a. What is this month's forecast using Naive approach b. Using 3-Month Moving Average, develop forecasts for October's demand c. Using 5-Month Moving Average, develop forecasts for October's demand d. When making moving average forecasts, is it better to use a larger time span? -
10 Community General Hospital finds itself treating many bicycle accident victims. Data from the last seven 24-hour periods is shown below: Day Bicycle Victims 1 8 2 14 3 8 4 14 5 18 6 15 What is the forecast for day 4 using a 3-period moving average model? (1 mark) (Round to two decimal places). 11 What is the forecast for day 5 using a 3-period moving average model? (Round to two decimal places). 12 What is the forecast for day 6 using a 3-period moving average model? (1 mark) (Round to two decimal places). 13
Given November actual demand of 61, November forecast of 58, and an alpha of 0.4, November trend value +1.03, Beta of 0.3 what would the forecast including trend (FIT) for the December period be using exponential smoothing model 2? Select one: a. 62.03 b. cannot be found c. 68.76 d. 65.72
Q3) Discuss Qualitative forecasting technique. Explain the situations where we use Qualitative methods. Discuss Delphi forecasting method and its challenge.
q 1 An analyst must decide between two different forecasting techniques for weekly sales of roller blades. Based on the following data, answer the below questions. time Units sold 1 147 2 148 3 151 4 145 5 155 6 152 7 155 8 157 9 160 10 165 What's the MAD if the exponential smoothing technique with alpha 0.4 is used?

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