The Gorman Manufacturing Company must decide whether to manufacture a component part at its Milan, Michigan, plant or purchase the component part from a supplier. The resulting profit is dependent upon the demand for the product. The following payoff table shows the projected profit (in thousands of dollars). The state-of-nature probabilities are P(s1) = .35, P(s2) = .35, and P(s3) = .30. a. Use a decision tree to recommend a decision.b. Use EVPI to determine whether Gorman should attempt to obtain abetter estimate of demand.c. A test market study of the potential demand for the product is expectedto report either a favorable (F) or unfavorable (U) condition. The relevantconditional probabilities are as follows: P(F | s1) = .10 P(U | s1) =.90 P(F | s2) = .40 P(U | s2) =.60 P(F | s3) = .60 P( U | s3) = .40 What is the probability that the market research report will be favorable?d. What is Gorman's optimal decision strategy?e. What is the expected value of the market research information?

An online cosmetic seller intends to send parcel on Cash On delivery in an attempt to increase her business. One out of every 10 parcels are returned, and the seller loses Rs. 350 (paid for delivery). But if the parcel is received, she gets a flat profit of Rs. 1000. Should she go for this new strategy? What is her expected net gain on each parcel?

Suppose you are deciding whether or not to bring an umbrella to school and the weathercan be either sunny or rainy. Initially, you think the probability that it will be sunny isP (S) = 0.6, and the probability that it will be rainy is P (R) = 0.4. If you bring an umbrellaand it rains, your payoff is 6. If you bring an umbrella and it is sunny, your payoff is 9. Ifyou don’t bring an umbrella and it rains, your payoff is 0. If you don’t bring an umbrellaand it is sunny, your payoff is 10. Suppose that you check two websites for weather forecasts.You know that the two forecasts are independent of each other, and each forecast is correct70% of the time. That is, the probability that the website says it will be sunny given that itactually will be sunny is 0.7, and the probability that the website says it will rain given thatit actually will rain is 0.7. Suppose that you suffer from confirmation bias. You initially thinkit is more likely to be sunny, so you misinterpret rain forecasts as sun…

The Harriet Hotel in downtown Boston has 100 rooms that rent for $150 per night. It costs the hotel $30 per room in variable costs (cleaning, bathroom items, etc.) each night a room is occupied. For each reservation accepted, there is a 5% chance that the guest will not arrive. If the hotel overbooks, it costs $200 to compensate guests whose reservations cannot be honored. How many reservations should the hotel accept if it wants to maximize the average daily profit?

Bob, the proprietor of Midway Lumber, bases his projections for the annual revenues of the company on the performance of the housing market. He rates the performance of the market as very strong, strong, normal, weak, or very weak. For the next year, Bob estimates that the probabilities for these outcomes are 0.15, 0.25, 0.39, 0.09, and 0.12, respectively. He also thinks that the revenues corresponding to these outcomes are $23, $18.6, $16.9, $14, and $6 million, respectively. What is Bob's expected revenue for next year?

Suppose an oil company is thinking of buying some land for $10,000,000. There is a 60%60% chance of economic growth and a 40%40% chance of recession. The probability of discovering oil is 44%44% when there is economic growth and 32%32% when there is a recession. If there is economic growth and the oil company discovers oil, the value of the land will triple. If they do not discover oil, the value of the land will decrease by 10%.10%. If there is a recession and the company discovers oil, the value of the land will increase by 50%.50%. If they do not discover oil, the land will decrease in value by 75%.75%. What is the expected value of the investment? Give your answer to the nearest dollar. Avoid rounding within calculations. $$     Select the correct interpretation of the expected value. The expected value represents what the actual investment value will be for this land purchase of $10,000,000. The company should make the investment because the expected value…

ASAP PLEASE   If your trading systerm has a losing percentage of 45%, how likely it is to have a series of four losses in a row?   1%   2.25%   45%   4.10%

You have done risk analysis and determine the following risks and their probabilities could affect your project. Based on these risks, what should you contingency reserve be? Risk 1: 50% chance of a weather delay costing $5,000Risk 2: 20% chance of a worker strike costing $10,000Risk 3: 10% chance of catastrophic failure costing $50,000

Refer to the following payoff table:   State of Nature Alternative S1 S2 A1 75 −40 A2 0 100 Prior Probability 0.6 0.4 There is an option of paying $100 to have research conducted to better predict which state of nature will occur. When the true state of nature is S1, the research will accurately predict S1 60% of the time. When the true state of nature is S2, the research will accurately predict S2 80% of the time. What is the posterior probability of S1 given that the research predicts S1?   Multiple Choice: 0.18 0.82 0.57 0.44 0.65

You are considering purchasing stand-alone shares in two companies: Company A and Company B.  While both companies expect a rate of return of 15% under normal market conditions, the possible returns under strong and weak economies differ. There is a 30% chance of a weak economy outcome, a 30% chance of a strong economy outcome, and a 40% chance of a normal outcome.  For Company A, under a strong economy, they expect a return of 75%. Under a weak economy, they expect a return of -45%. For Company B, under a strong economy, they expect a return of 23%. Under a weak economy, they expect a return of 7.5%. 1. Create a probability distribution table for both companies.  2. Calculate the standard deviation for both companies. 3. With the distribution, create either a bar graph or a bell curve to graph the two companies.  4. From your calculations, describe which company you would consider investing in, if you were risk averse.