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The Federal Reserve publication that discusses forecasts for the economy is known as the

ENGR.ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

14th Edition

ISBN:9780190931919

Author:NEWNAN

Publisher:NEWNAN

Chapter1: Making Economics Decisions

Section: Chapter Questions

Problem 1QTC

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The Federal Reserve publication that discusses forecasts for the economy is known as the

Leveraging special tenchniques in analyzing historical data to predict future trends. Forecasting covers the methods and types of forecasting and their application to case studies.

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The text provides an illustration of Taylor interest rate rule first proposed in the early 1990s as an automatic way to conduct monetary policy. One version of this rule (for 1988 – 2008 data) is: Federal Funds Rate = 2.07 + 1.28 x (inflation rate) – 1.95 x (unemployment gap) For 2020, use an inflation rate of 2% and the unemployment gap is the difference between current unemployment (6.9%) and the natural rate of unemployment (UN) = 4.5%. (1) What is the current value of the Federal funds rate? (2) What does the Taylor Rule predict? (3) Is there a Phillips Curve relationship in the Taylor Rule? Explain by assuming a fixed federal funds interest rate of 5% and then double the rate of inflation (this is not a numerical calculation problem).
For the following questions, make use of provided information. Since the peak of the pandemic shutdowns, employment has been increasing. Unemployment peaked around 15% in April 2020, and was down to approximately 4% in February 2022. At the same time, estimated inflation rates have increased from approximately 1.5% in January 2021 to nearly 8% in February 2022. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is meeting this week (March 15-16). It is widely expected that they will increase interest rates by 0.25% (25 basis points). Explain why the FOMC is expected to increase its target overnight interest rate.
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