(The Allais Paradox) Suppose we are offered achoice between the following two lotteries:L1: With probability 1, we receive $1 million.L2: With probability .10, we receive $5 million.L2: With probability .89, we receive $1 million.L2: With probability .01, we receive $0.Which lottery do we prefer? Now consider the followingtwo lotteries:L3: With probability .11, we receive $1 million.L2: With probability .89, we receive $0.L4: With probability .10, we receive $5 million.L2: With probability .90, we receive $0.Which lottery do we prefer? Suppose (like most people), weprefer L1 to L2. Show that L3 must have a larger expectedutility than L4.

Calculus For The Life Sciences
2nd Edition
ISBN:9780321964038
Author:GREENWELL, Raymond N., RITCHEY, Nathan P., Lial, Margaret L.
Publisher:GREENWELL, Raymond N., RITCHEY, Nathan P., Lial, Margaret L.
Chapter12: Probability
Section12.3: Conditional Probability; Independent Events; Bayes' Theorem
Problem 39E: The following problem submitted by Daniel Hahn of Blairstown, Iowa, appeared in the Ask Marilyn...
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(The Allais Paradox) Suppose we are offered a
choice between the following two lotteries:
L1: With probability 1, we receive $1 million.
L2: With probability .10, we receive $5 million.
L2: With probability .89, we receive $1 million.
L2: With probability .01, we receive $0.
Which lottery do we prefer? Now consider the following
two lotteries:L3: With probability .11, we receive $1 million.
L2: With probability .89, we receive $0.
L4: With probability .10, we receive $5 million.
L2: With probability .90, we receive $0.
Which lottery do we prefer? Suppose (like most people), we
prefer L1 to L2. Show that L3 must have a larger expected
utility than L4.

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