Suppose you are studying a summer jobs program for at risk youth. The treatment is randomly assigned, and facilities youth in finding summer jobs. The table below illustrates the employment probabilities and the arrest the probabilities of the treatment and control groups. If you ran an instrument variables regression of having a summer job on being arrested, using the assignment to the treatment group as the instrument) what is the estimated effect of having a summer job on being arrested. Treatment Control Summer Job 0.42 0.14 Arrested 0.32 0.38

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