Suppose the following are the seasonal indices for the first three quarters of the year for a quarterly series:   Quarter Seasonal Index Q1 73.7 Q2 82.5 Q3 108.1       Remember that the seasonal indices should average 100 so you should be able to infer the seasonal index for Q4.   Furthermore, suppose that the estimated coeffcients from a regression of the deseasonalized series on Time are given below:     Coefficients Intercept 2,733 Time 65.8   If the original value of the series in a Q4 was 2,197, then what is the seasonally adjusted value?

Consider the following time series.t                  1           2            3           4           5           6            7 Yt              120       110        100        96        94         92          88a. What type of pattern exists in the data?HorizontalSeasonal with upward trendDownward trendUpward trendSeasonal with downward trendb. Regression analysis yields the following forecast equation: 119.71 - 4.929t; what is the forecast for period 8? Round to the nearest hundredth.c. Regression analysis yields the following forecast equation: 119.71 - 4.929t; what is the MSE for this forecast method? Round to the nearest hundredth.

The following table contains the demand from the last 10 months: MONTH ACTUAL DEMAND 1 31 2 34 3 33 4 35 5 37 6 36 7 38 8 40 9 40 10 41 a. Calculate the single exponential smoothing forecast for these data using an α of 0.30 and an initial forecast ( F1�1 ) of 31. Note: Round your intermediate calculations and answers to 2 decimal places.   b. Calculate the exponential smoothing with trend forecast for these data using an α of 0.30, a δ of 0.30, an initial trend forecast ( T1�1 ) of 1, and an initial exponentially smoothed forecast ( F1�1 ) of 30. Note: Round your intermediate calculations and answers to 2 decimal places.   c-1. Calculate the mean absolute deviation (MAD) for the last nine months of forecasts. Note: Round your intermediate calculations and answers to 2 decimal places.   c-2. Which is best? multiple choice Exponential smoothing with trend forecast Single exponential smoothing forecast

Ten years of monthly data of a seasonally adjusted series are used to estimate a linear trend model as T = 24.10+ 0.32t. In addition, seasonal indices for January and February are calculated as 1.08 and 0.97, respectively. Make a forecast for the first two months of next year. (Do not round intermediate calculations. Round your answers to 2 decimal places.) ýt January February

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Use R programming or excel to answer the following. Visualize your answers.   Consider the following quarterly time series:   Quarter Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 1 923 1112 1243 2 1056 1156 1301 3 1124 1124 1254 4 992 1078 1198 Construct a time series plot. What type of pattern exists in the data? Use a multiple regression model with dummy variables as follows to develop an equation to account for seasonal effects in the data. Qtr1 = 1 if quarter 1, 0 otherwise; Qtr2 = 1 if quarter 2, 0 otherwise; Qtr3 = 1 if quarter 3, 0 otherwise. Compute the quarterly forecasts for next year based on the model developed in part b.