Suppose 0.1% of the population have a new disease. A test is developed for the disease. 98% of people without the disease will receive a negative test result. 99.5% of people with the disease will receive a positive test result. A random person who was tested for the disease is chosen. What is the
N = negative test results
H = does not have the disease
- P(N and H) = P(N|H) x P(H) or 2. P(H|N) x P(N) [use formula 1]
= (0.98) P
For the defined events, "
The given probabilities are:
The probability that a selected person has the disease,
The probability that a selected person received a negative test result, provided that the person does not have the disease, i.e.,
The probability that a selected person received a positive test result, given that the person has the disease, i.e.,
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