Ram Roy's firm has developed the following supply, demand, cost, and inventory data. Supply Available Regular Demand Period Time Overtime Subcontract Forecast 1 40 15 5 50 2 30 15 5 60 3 40 20 5 60 30 units $100 $150 $250 $6 Initial inventory Regular-time cost per unit Overtime cost per unit Subcontract cost per unit Carrying cost per unit per month Assume that the initial inventory has no holding cost in the first period and backorders are not permitted. Allocating production capacity to meet demand at a minimum cost using the transportation method, the total cost is $ (enter your response as a whole number).
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- Sometimes curvature in a scatterplot can be fit adequately (especially to the naked eye) by several trend lines. We discussed the exponential trend line, and the power trend line is discussed in the previous problem. Still another fairly simple trend line is the parabola, a polynomial of order 2 (also called a quadratic). For the demand-price data in the file P13_10.xlsx, fit all three of these types of trend lines to the data, and calculate the MAPE for each. Which provides the best fit? (Hint: Note that a polynomial of order 2 is still another of Excels Trend line options.)Assume the demand for a companys drug Wozac during the current year is 50,000, and assume demand will grow at 5% a year. If the company builds a plant that can produce x units of Wozac per year, it will cost 16x. Each unit of Wozac is sold for 3. Each unit of Wozac produced incurs a variable production cost of 0.20. It costs 0.40 per year to operate a unit of capacity. Determine how large a Wozac plant the company should build to maximize its expected profit over the next 10 years.When you use a RISKSIMTABLE function for a decision variable, such as the order quantity in the Walton model, explain how this provides a fair comparison across the different values tested.
- The file P13_22.xlsx contains total monthly U.S. retail sales data. While holding out the final six months of observations for validation purposes, use the method of moving averages with a carefully chosen span to forecast U.S. retail sales in the next year. Comment on the performance of your model. What makes this time series more challenging to forecast?The Baker Company wants to develop a budget to predict how overhead costs vary with activity levels. Management is trying to decide whether direct labor hours (DLH) or units produced is the better measure of activity for the firm. Monthly data for the preceding 24 months appear in the file P13_40.xlsx. Use regression analysis to determine which measure, DLH or Units (or both), should be used for the budget. How would the regression equation be used to obtain the budget for the firms overhead costs?Seas Beginning sells clothing by mail order. An important question is when to strike a customer from the companys mailing list. At present, the company strikes a customer from its mailing list if a customer fails to order from six consecutive catalogs. The company wants to know whether striking a customer from its list after a customer fails to order from four consecutive catalogs results in a higher profit per customer. The following data are available: If a customer placed an order the last time she received a catalog, then there is a 20% chance she will order from the next catalog. If a customer last placed an order one catalog ago, there is a 16% chance she will order from the next catalog she receives. If a customer last placed an order two catalogs ago, there is a 12% chance she will order from the next catalog she receives. If a customer last placed an order three catalogs ago, there is an 8% chance she will order from the next catalog she receives. If a customer last placed an order four catalogs ago, there is a 4% chance she will order from the next catalog she receives. If a customer last placed an order five catalogs ago, there is a 2% chance she will order from the next catalog she receives. It costs 2 to send a catalog, and the average profit per order is 30. Assume a customer has just placed an order. To maximize expected profit per customer, would Seas Beginning make more money canceling such a customer after six nonorders or four nonorders?
- Given the following forecast and cost information, Regular time cost $ 40.00 per unitdetermine the total cost of a plan that uses regular time Overtime cost $ 60.00 per unitproduction output of 600 units per month, overtime is subcontracting cost $ 80.00 per unitused when needed up to a maximum of 60 units per holding cost $ 10.00 per unit per monthmonth, and subcontracting is used if additional units are needed to meet the forecast.Month Forecast1 5702 6003 6304 6505 6706 690TotalsWhitebridge Hardware Store Whitebridge Hardware Store has a monthly demand for lawn fertilizer listed below. The gardening season starts in early spring when people want to fertilize their lawns. Period Demand Jan 59 Feb 68 March 91 April 145 May 182 June 212 July 193 Aug 174 Sept 144 Oct 89 Nov 74 Dec 55 Answer Questions 1 – 5 below. [Be sure to watch the video on how to complete your forecasting problem, in the content module.] Everything must be typed including the graph. You need to complete this assignment in Excel. For the narrative answers, you can include them in Excel in one or more of the empty cells. If you know how to add an extra worksheet, you can add your answers on a new worksheet. Or you can type them in a Word document Please include your name somewhere. In the Assignments area, a…Use Excel to make calculations Given the following sales data: Quarter Year 1 Year 2 1 120 150 2 160 200 3 210 250 4 130 170 Compute the seasonal index for each quarter and forecast quarterly demand for year 3 with a projected annual demand of 1000. The efficiency of a production unit is 70 percent. The unit produces an average of 100 products per day. Determine the effective capacity of the unit. The utilization of a machine is 60 percent. The machine has a design capacity of 150 units per hour and an effective capacity of 100 units per hour. Find the efficiency of the machine. FloorsRUs is considering new locations for its manufacturing plants. Costs for constructing a new facility in Huntsville are $1,100,000 and the company estimates that for every product from its new line, there would be an additional cost of $3. If the company were to locate in Hays, the new facility would cost $1,800,000 and each product would incur a $2…
- The table below comprises of demand from the last 10 months: Month Demand 1 31 2 34 3 33 4 35 5 37 6 36 7 38 8 40 9 40 10 41 Calculate the exponential smoothing with trend forecast for the second month using a alpha and delta of 0.3 each. Take the initial exponentially smoothed forecast (F1) of 30 and initial trend forecast (T1) of 1. Note: I have tried solving this question and I got 31, but unfortunately it was the wrong answer.The following table represents sales data for milk (in hundred liters) sold by a grocery.Do the computations to fill out the table and answer the following questions:1. Using MAD as the criterion, which of the following models would you use for thegiven time series data? Why?A. Naïve approach;B. 5-month SMA model;C. WMA model with weights 0.1, 0.3, and 0.6; orD. ES model with α = 0.5 and a forecast of 3,500 liters in the first month.NOTE: In answering Item 1, mention the whole description of the model; i.e., not just“SMA model”, but “SMA model with n = ...”; not just “WMA model”, but “WMA modelwith weights ...”; not just “ES model”, but “ES model with α = ...”.2. Interpret the MAD of the most accurate among the forecasting models above.3. Based on your decision in Item 1, what should be the forecast for Month 11?The following time series shows the sales of a particular product over the past 12 months. Month Sales 1 105 2 135 3 120 4 105 5 90 6 120 7 145 8 140 9 100 10 80 11 100 12 110 (a)Use ? = 0.4 to compute the exponential smoothing values for the time series. (Round your answers to two decimal places.) Month t Time Series Value Yt Forecast Ft 1 105 2 135 3 120 4 105 5 90 6 120 7 145 8 140 9 100 10 80 11 100 12 110 (b)Use a smoothing constant of ? = 0.6 to compute the exponential smoothing forecasts. (Round your answers to two decimal places.) Month t Time Series Value Yt Forecast Ft 1 105 2 135 3 120 4 105 5 90 6 120 7 145 8 140 9 100 10 80 11 100 12 110