Racquet Centers, Inc. (RCI) is a small investment company. The company is considering building a new racquet center. If the demand for the center is high (i.e., there is a favorable market for the racquet center), RCI could realize a net profit of $100,000. If the market is not favorable, RCI could lose $40,000. Of course, they don't have to proceed at all; in which case, there is no cost. In the absence of any market data, the best RCI can guess is that there is a 50-50 chance the center will be successful. What should RCI do? Obviously they should construct the center as the following table shows the Expected Monetary value of construction the center is $30,000 Probabilities 0.5 0.5 Favorable Market Unfavorable Market Construct The Center Do Nothing $100,000.00 0 ($40,000.00) 0 EMV= EMV= $30,000.00 $0.00

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Author:R. David Gustafson, Jeff Hughes
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a.     Develop a new decision tree for RCI to reflect the options now open with the market study. 

 

Racquet Centers, Inc. (RCI) is a small investment company. The company is considering building a new racquet
center. If the demand for the center is high (i.e., there is a favorable market for the racquet center), RCI could realize
a net profit of $100,000. If the market is not favorable, RCI could lose $40,000. Of course, they don't have to
proceed at all; in which case, there is no cost. In the absence of any market data, the best RCI can guess is that there
is a 50-50 chance the center will be successful. What should RCI do?
Obviously they should construct the center as the following table shows the Expected Monetary value of construction the center is $30,000.
Probabilities
0.5
0.5
Favorable Market
Unfavorable Market
Construct The Center
Do Nothing
$100,000.00
0
($40,000.00)
0
EMV=
EMV=
$30,000.00
$0.00
RCI has been approached by a market research firm that offers to perform a study of the market. The market
researchers claim their experience enables them to make the following statements of posterior probabilities:
probability of a favorable market given a favorable study = 0.82
probability of an unfavorable market given a favorable study = 0.18
probability of a favorable market given an unfavorable study = 0.11
probability of an unfavorable market given an unfavorable study = 0.89
probability of a favorable research study = 0.55
probability of an unfavorable research study = 0.45
Transcribed Image Text:Racquet Centers, Inc. (RCI) is a small investment company. The company is considering building a new racquet center. If the demand for the center is high (i.e., there is a favorable market for the racquet center), RCI could realize a net profit of $100,000. If the market is not favorable, RCI could lose $40,000. Of course, they don't have to proceed at all; in which case, there is no cost. In the absence of any market data, the best RCI can guess is that there is a 50-50 chance the center will be successful. What should RCI do? Obviously they should construct the center as the following table shows the Expected Monetary value of construction the center is $30,000. Probabilities 0.5 0.5 Favorable Market Unfavorable Market Construct The Center Do Nothing $100,000.00 0 ($40,000.00) 0 EMV= EMV= $30,000.00 $0.00 RCI has been approached by a market research firm that offers to perform a study of the market. The market researchers claim their experience enables them to make the following statements of posterior probabilities: probability of a favorable market given a favorable study = 0.82 probability of an unfavorable market given a favorable study = 0.18 probability of a favorable market given an unfavorable study = 0.11 probability of an unfavorable market given an unfavorable study = 0.89 probability of a favorable research study = 0.55 probability of an unfavorable research study = 0.45
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