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Question 2 A farmer in the Blue Mountains area of Jamaica wants to decide on the crop to plant next season. He wants to plant either ganja or coffee for export to the USA but need some help. He knows that if he plants ganja and the weather in the USA is predominantly cold he earns $10,000(US per month. If the weather is warm he earns $16,000. If he plants coffee and the weather is cold he earns 13,000 and if the weather is warm he earns $14000. In 40% of the years, the weather was cold and in 60 % the weather was warm. For $600, he could buy an expert weather forecast from CWD consulting. States of Nature with Profits ($) Does not include forecast cost Decision Warm Cold weather (C) Alternatives weather(W) Ganja $16,000 $10,000 Coffee $14,000 $13000 Prior Probabilities P(W) = 0.60 P(C) = .40 Conditional probability for a given state of nature where forecasts are either Good (G) or bad (B): That is: P (G|W) = 0.80; P (B|W) = 0.20; P (G|C) = 0.10; P (B|C) = 0.90 After vou have computed the revised probabilities round to two decimal places a) Construct the appropriate decision tree to help the farmer make the appropriate decisions. This tree must be constructed in logical order with labels and net payoffs ( . It also includes the revised probabilities b) Fold back the decision tree must state this strategy ( c) What is the expected value of sample information(EVSI)- the most that should be paid to seismic testing firm for the test?( to determine the best strategy for the farmer; you What is the final expected profit?

Question 2 A farmer in the Blue Mountains area of Jamaica wants to decide on the crop to plant next season. He wants to plant either ganja or coffee for export to the USA but need some help. He knows that if he plants ganja and the weather in the USA is predominantly cold he earns $10,000(US per month. If the weather is warm he earns $16,000. If he plants coffee and the weather is cold he earns 13,000 and if the weather is warm he earns $14000. In 40% of the years, the weather was cold and in 60 % the weather was warm. For $600, he could buy an expert weather forecast from CWD consulting. States of Nature with Profits ($) Does not include forecast cost Decision Warm Cold weather (C) Alternatives weather(W) Ganja $16,000 $10,000 Coffee $14,000 $13000 Prior Probabilities P(W) = 0.60 P(C) = .40 Conditional probability for a given state of nature where forecasts are either Good (G) or bad (B): That is: P (G|W) = 0.80; P (B|W) = 0.20; P (G|C) = 0.10; P (B|C) = 0.90 After vou have computed the revised probabilities round to two decimal places a) Construct the appropriate decision tree to help the farmer make the appropriate decisions. This tree must be constructed in logical order with labels and net payoffs ( . It also includes the revised probabilities b) Fold back the decision tree must state this strategy ( c) What is the expected value of sample information(EVSI)- the most that should be paid to seismic testing firm for the test?( to determine the best strategy for the farmer; you What is the final expected profit?

Practical Management Science
Practical Management Science
6th Edition
ISBN:9781337406659
Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Chapter5: Network Models
Section5.5: Shortest Path Models
Problem 30P
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Question 2 A farmer in the Blue Mountains area of Jamaica wants to decide on the crop to plant next season. He wants to plant either ganja or coffee for export to the USA but need some help. He knows that if he plants ganja and the weather in the USA is predominantly cold he earns $10,000(US per month. If the weather is warm he earns $16,000. If he plants coffee and the weather is cold he earns 13,000 and if the weather is warm he earns $14000. In 40% of the years, the weather was cold and in 60 % the weather was warm. For $600, he could buy an expert weather forecast from CWD consulting. States of Nature with Profits ($) Does not include forecast cost Decision Warm Cold weather (C) Alternatives weather(W) Ganja $16,000 $10,000 Coffee $14,000 $13000 Prior Probabilities P(W) = 0.60 P(C) = .40 Conditional probability for a given state of nature where forecasts are either Good (G) or bad (B): That is: P (G|W) = 0.80; P (B|W) = 0.20; P (G|C) = 0.10; P (B|C) = 0.90 After vou have computed the revised probabilities round to two decimal places a) Construct the appropriate decision tree to help the farmer make the appropriate decisions. This tree must be constructed in logical order with labels and net payoffs ( .It also includes the revised probabilities b) Fold back the decision tree must state this strategy ( . What is the final expected profit? c) What is the expected value of sample information(EVSI)- the most that should be paid to seismic testing firm for the test?( to determine the best strategy for the farmer; you
Transcribed Image Text:Question 2 A farmer in the Blue Mountains area of Jamaica wants to decide on the crop to plant next season. He wants to plant either ganja or coffee for export to the USA but need some help. He knows that if he plants ganja and the weather in the USA is predominantly cold he earns $10,000(US per month. If the weather is warm he earns $16,000. If he plants coffee and the weather is cold he earns 13,000 and if the weather is warm he earns $14000. In 40% of the years, the weather was cold and in 60 % the weather was warm. For $600, he could buy an expert weather forecast from CWD consulting. States of Nature with Profits ($) Does not include forecast cost Decision Warm Cold weather (C) Alternatives weather(W) Ganja $16,000 $10,000 Coffee $14,000 $13000 Prior Probabilities P(W) = 0.60 P(C) = .40 Conditional probability for a given state of nature where forecasts are either Good (G) or bad (B): That is: P (G|W) = 0.80; P (B|W) = 0.20; P (G|C) = 0.10; P (B|C) = 0.90 After vou have computed the revised probabilities round to two decimal places a) Construct the appropriate decision tree to help the farmer make the appropriate decisions. This tree must be constructed in logical order with labels and net payoffs ( .It also includes the revised probabilities b) Fold back the decision tree must state this strategy ( . What is the final expected profit? c) What is the expected value of sample information(EVSI)- the most that should be paid to seismic testing firm for the test?( to determine the best strategy for the farmer; you
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