Question 11Consider the following decision tree:.40$3,0004.60-$1,0003.20$2,500.801$2,000$1,800What is the expected value associated with Node 2?600155021002500

Answered: Question 11 Consider the following…

Practical Management Science

6th Edition

ISBN:9781337406659

Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Chapter5: Network Models

Section5.3: Assignment Models

Problem 12P

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Scenario 4 Sharon Gillespie, a new buyer at Visionex, Inc., was reviewing quotations for a tooling contract submitted by four suppliers. She was evaluating the quotes based on price, target quality levels, and delivery lead time promises. As she was working, her manager, Dave Cox, entered her office. He asked how everything was progressing and if she needed any help. She mentioned she was reviewing quotations from suppliers for a tooling contract. Dave asked who the interested suppliers were and if she had made a decision. Sharon indicated that one supplier, Apex, appeared to fit exactly the requirements Visionex had specified in the proposal. Dave told her to keep up the good work. Later that day Dave again visited Sharons office. He stated that he had done some research on the suppliers and felt that another supplier, Micron, appeared to have the best track record with Visionex. He pointed out that Sharons first choice was a new supplier to Visionex and there was some risk involved with that choice. Dave indicated that it would please him greatly if she selected Micron for the contract. The next day Sharon was having lunch with another buyer, Mark Smith. She mentioned the conversation with Dave and said she honestly felt that Apex was the best choice. When Mark asked Sharon who Dave preferred, she answered, Micron. At that point Mark rolled his eyes and shook his head. Sharon asked what the body language was all about. Mark replied, Look, I know youre new but you should know this. I heard last week that Daves brother-in-law is a new part owner of Micron. I was wondering how soon it would be before he started steering business to that company. He is not the straightest character. Sharon was shocked. After a few moments, she announced that her original choice was still the best selection. At that point Mark reminded Sharon that she was replacing a terminated buyer who did not go along with one of Daves previous preferred suppliers. What should Sharon do in this situation?
Scenario 4 Sharon Gillespie, a new buyer at Visionex, Inc., was reviewing quotations for a tooling contract submitted by four suppliers. She was evaluating the quotes based on price, target quality levels, and delivery lead time promises. As she was working, her manager, Dave Cox, entered her office. He asked how everything was progressing and if she needed any help. She mentioned she was reviewing quotations from suppliers for a tooling contract. Dave asked who the interested suppliers were and if she had made a decision. Sharon indicated that one supplier, Apex, appeared to fit exactly the requirements Visionex had specified in the proposal. Dave told her to keep up the good work. Later that day Dave again visited Sharons office. He stated that he had done some research on the suppliers and felt that another supplier, Micron, appeared to have the best track record with Visionex. He pointed out that Sharons first choice was a new supplier to Visionex and there was some risk involved with that choice. Dave indicated that it would please him greatly if she selected Micron for the contract. The next day Sharon was having lunch with another buyer, Mark Smith. She mentioned the conversation with Dave and said she honestly felt that Apex was the best choice. When Mark asked Sharon who Dave preferred, she answered, Micron. At that point Mark rolled his eyes and shook his head. Sharon asked what the body language was all about. Mark replied, Look, I know youre new but you should know this. I heard last week that Daves brother-in-law is a new part owner of Micron. I was wondering how soon it would be before he started steering business to that company. He is not the straightest character. Sharon was shocked. After a few moments, she announced that her original choice was still the best selection. At that point Mark reminded Sharon that she was replacing a terminated buyer who did not go along with one of Daves previous preferred suppliers. Ethical decisions that affect a buyers ethical perspective usually involve the organizational environment, cultural environment, personal environment, and industry environment. Analyze this scenario using these four variables.
Scenario 4 Sharon Gillespie, a new buyer at Visionex, Inc., was reviewing quotations for a tooling contract submitted by four suppliers. She was evaluating the quotes based on price, target quality levels, and delivery lead time promises. As she was working, her manager, Dave Cox, entered her office. He asked how everything was progressing and if she needed any help. She mentioned she was reviewing quotations from suppliers for a tooling contract. Dave asked who the interested suppliers were and if she had made a decision. Sharon indicated that one supplier, Apex, appeared to fit exactly the requirements Visionex had specified in the proposal. Dave told her to keep up the good work. Later that day Dave again visited Sharons office. He stated that he had done some research on the suppliers and felt that another supplier, Micron, appeared to have the best track record with Visionex. He pointed out that Sharons first choice was a new supplier to Visionex and there was some risk involved with that choice. Dave indicated that it would please him greatly if she selected Micron for the contract. The next day Sharon was having lunch with another buyer, Mark Smith. She mentioned the conversation with Dave and said she honestly felt that Apex was the best choice. When Mark asked Sharon who Dave preferred, she answered, Micron. At that point Mark rolled his eyes and shook his head. Sharon asked what the body language was all about. Mark replied, Look, I know youre new but you should know this. I heard last week that Daves brother-in-law is a new part owner of Micron. I was wondering how soon it would be before he started steering business to that company. He is not the straightest character. Sharon was shocked. After a few moments, she announced that her original choice was still the best selection. At that point Mark reminded Sharon that she was replacing a terminated buyer who did not go along with one of Daves previous preferred suppliers. What does the Institute of Supply Management code of ethics say about financial conflicts of interest?
Decision Under Uncertainty: Suppose the management at somaya Inc., is considering changing the size (capacity) of its manufacturing plant. Management has narrowed the decision to three choices. The plant's capacity will be (1) expanded by 20 percent, (2) maintained at the current capacity, or (3) reduced by 20 percent. The outcome of this decision depends crucially on how the economy performs during the upcoming year. Thus the performance of the economy is the "state of nature" in this decision problem. For each possible decision and state of nature, the managers determine the profit outcome, or payoff, shown in the payoff matrix in table 1. Table 1 The Payoff Matrix for somaya Inc. States of Nature Decision Recovery AED 15 million AED 6 million AED 2 million Stagnation Recession -AEĎ 2 million - AED 6 million Expand Plant Capacity of 20 % Maintain same Plant Capacity AED 4 million AED 1 million Reduce Plant Capacity of 20 % AED 1 million AED 1.5 million The managers do not know which…
Decision Under Uncertainty The digital television service company TV-más is facing a significant problem of customer loss in recent months, in particular, customers of the Home plan, which consists of an annual subscription whose value is $200 and that allows you to watch more than 40 high definition television channels. The company has prepared a list of clients who have decided that once the subscription has ended, they will not contract the service again, since, among several reasons , they maintain that the company does not treat its clients well. Considering customer opinions, the company has thought of a plan so that customers who have decided not to renew can reverse their decision and subscribe to the service for one more year. The plan consists of giving a gift to customers who have decided not to renew in order to show concern for them. The gift consists of a set of kitchen pots, with the company logo, which costs the company $50. According to information from a pilot plan…
Question Description MedStar Health is expanding into Virginia. The firm must select one location where it can build a clinic to serve patients. The following table lists the expected profits for clinics in three locations and the expected probabilities of the two possible situations: high numbers of patients utilizing the clinic or low numbers of patients utilizing the clinic. |Question 3 High (0.75) Low (0.25) $1,500,000.00 S 600,000.00 $ 950,000.00 S 900,000.00 $1,200,000.00 $ 200,000.00 Location ) Alexandria | Woodbridge 2 Leesburg Find the best decision using the following: a. Develop a payoff table for this situation. b. Find the following: 1. Maximax 2. Maximin 3. Equal likelihood 4. Minimax regret c. Create a sensitivity graph comparing the different alternatives as to the probability of numbers of patients changes.
QUESTION 5 Supposing Petromin intends to build another oil refinery in PNG apart from the existing 2 small oil refineries (refer to question 2 above). The alternatives are to either build a big refinery, medium refinery, small refinery or no refinery at all. It has forecast the demand for its oil against the 4 alterative as shown in the table below. Alternatives Build large refinery Build medium refinery Build small refinery No refinery High demand 650000 150000 70000 0 Outcomes Moderate demand 543000 100000 40000 0 Low demand 325000 65000 20000 0 Undertake a decision analysis. Specifically, apply the maximax, maximin, Laplace and minimax (regret) approaches. Interpret your results.
Please answer a, b and c. Question four Bakery Products is considering the introduction of a new line of products. In order to produce the new line, the bakery is considering either a major or minor renovation of the current plant. Bakery Products has the option of not developing the new line at all. The decision alternatives are shown in the payoff table below as well as the states of nature and probabilities. Payoffs are profits; Before making the final decision, Bakery Products can pay a market research firm $500.00 to survey consumer attitudes towards the company's products. The results can be either “vibrant” or “limp”. The reliability of the company, based on past performance, is given below. That is: P(V|F) = 0.80;P(V|N) = 0.60;P(V|U) = 0.30; P(L|F) = 0.20;P(L|N) = 0.40;P(L|U) = 0.70; a) Computed the revised probabilities round to two decimal places. b) After you have computed the revised probabilities round to two decimal places, construct the appropriate decision tree…
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Decision Table with Conditional Values for Happy Company: Product Market Condition and Payoff (RM) Favourable Stable Unfavourable 8,000 5,000 7,000 6,000 3,000 6,000 -5,000 -1,200 -1,000 A В C Do Nothing Probability 0.4 0.3 0.3 Opportunity loss table for Happy Company.: MARKET CONDITION AND PAYOFF (RM) MAXIMUM IN PRODUCT FAVOURABLE STABLE UNFAVOURABLE A ROW (RM) 5,000 5,000 3,000 A 3,000 3,000 1,200 1,000 8,000 1,000 1,000 Do Nothing Probability 8,000 6,000 0.3 0.4 0.3 Based on the above data answer the following questions: (a) Construct the expected opportunity loss table for Happy Sdn. Bhd. (b) State the best decision (value and product) under EOL method.
A)decision table with probability for decision under risk B)Best decision under emv method
Question 1: Market planning, Inc. a marketing research firm, has obtained the prescription sales data for 20 independent pharmacies (attached). In this table y is the average weekly prescription sales over the past year (in units of $1,000), x1 is the floor space (in square feet), x2 is the percentage of floor space allocated to the prescription department, x3 is the number of parking spaces available to the store, x4 is the weekly per capita income for the surrounding community (in units of $100), and x5 is a dummy variable that equals 1 if the pharmacy is located in a shopping center and 0 otherwise. Regress average weekly prescription sales against different combinations of the independent variables. What is the best model? Discuss what the parameter coefficients say about prescription sales.

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Question 11 Consider the following decision tree: .40 $3,000 4 .60 -$1,000 3 .20 2 $2,500 .80 $2,000 $1,800 What is the expected value associated with Node 2? 600 1550 2100 2500