A First Course in Probability (10th Edition)
A First Course in Probability (10th Edition)
10th Edition
ISBN: 9780134753119
Author: Sheldon Ross
Publisher: PEARSON
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Q3. Suppose that the market default rate for bonds is given by 0.01, i.e., the probability
the market believes that the company may not be able to pay the owner of the bonds is 0.01.
Now a credit default swap (CDS) is sold at fair price $ 0.01 per unit. Ackman expects that
the true default rate is 0.05, not 0.01. Ackman bought 67 billion units of CDS at the price
$ 0.01 per unit.
a. Suppose that Ackeman's expectation about the default rate is not correct. I.e., the
true default rate for bonds is given by 0.01. Find the cost of the purchase. Find the expected
payoff. Find the profit.
b. Suppose that Ackeman's expectation is correct. Find the cost of the purchase. Find
the expected payoff. Find the profit.
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Transcribed Image Text:Q3. Suppose that the market default rate for bonds is given by 0.01, i.e., the probability the market believes that the company may not be able to pay the owner of the bonds is 0.01. Now a credit default swap (CDS) is sold at fair price $ 0.01 per unit. Ackman expects that the true default rate is 0.05, not 0.01. Ackman bought 67 billion units of CDS at the price $ 0.01 per unit. a. Suppose that Ackeman's expectation about the default rate is not correct. I.e., the true default rate for bonds is given by 0.01. Find the cost of the purchase. Find the expected payoff. Find the profit. b. Suppose that Ackeman's expectation is correct. Find the cost of the purchase. Find the expected payoff. Find the profit.
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