Q3. Find forecasted value for 2017 using a = 0.5 and a = 0.7 using exponential smoothing method. Which a is better (10 Years Sales Forecasted sale 2012 25 2013 17 2014 21 2015 30 2016 27 2017 ?

Given: Year     Demand 1             7 2             9 3             5 4             9 5 Predict the value for Year 5: 2 year moving average What is MSE for 2 year moving average? 2 year moving average using 0.6 (weight for the oldest period) and 0.4(weight for most recent period Exponential smoothing, =0.2 and forecast for Year 1 = 5 Linear trend Which forecast method has the least amount of error using MAD? What is the coefficient?

Asvnch Problem - Statistical Forecasting Data Set – Eunice BC Fashion Monthly Sales, in million units. Year Total Sales Year Total Sales 2010 38 2016 43 2011 41 2017 40 2012 40 2018 45 2013 45 2019 47 2014 50 2020 42 2015 42 2021 48 Questions: a. Find the naïve forecast. b. Use the 3 years moving average forecast. c. Have a 5 years weighted moving average. d. Develop forecast using exponential smoothing with a = 0.2. e. Determine the trend line equation and present the forecast. f. Find the best forecast for year 2022. Note: Use the first 5 years as the training samples and the last 5 years as the forecasting samples. Solve it in Excel Sheet/Sheet with Equations as possible.

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(Use excel to show formulas used) Use regression or simple exponential smoothing with the following data. For exponential smoothing, assume the forecast for year 1 was the same as the actual and use an alpha of 0.7. Year Sales 1 290 2 340 3 400 4 410 5 400 Forecast Year 6 sales.  Compute MAD.

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Historical sales data is shown below. Week Actual Forecast 1 328 300 2 272   3 245   4 223   5 205   6     Using alpha (α) = 0.2, what is the exponential smoothing forecast for period 6? Note: Round your answer to 2 decimal places. Note:- Do not provide handwritten solution. Maintain accuracy and quality in your answer. Take care of plagiarism. Answer completely. You will get up vote for sure.

What is bias error in forecasting? What are some of the causes?

*** Can you please demonstrate how to do parts d, e, f? Given: Year     Demand 1             7 2             9 3             5 4             9 5 Predict the value for Year 5: 2 year moving average What is MSE for 2 year moving average? 2 year moving average using 0.6 (weight for the oldest period) and 0.4(weight for most recent period Exponential smoothing, =0.2 and forecast for Year 1 = 5 Linear trend Which forecast method has the least amount of error using MAD? What is the coefficient?