One of the most powerful people in Hollywood is not an actor, director, or producer. It is Richard Soames, an insurance director for the London-based Film Finances Ltd. Soames is a leading provider of movie completion bond guarantees. The guarantees are like insurance policies that pay the extra costs when films go over budget or are not completed on time. Suppose that Soames is considering insuring the production of a movie and feels there is a 0.65 chance that

One of the most powerful people in Hollywood is not an actor, director, or producer. It is Richard Soames, an insurance director for the London-based Film Finances Ltd. Soames is a leading provider of movie completion bond guarantees. The guarantees are like insurance policies that pay the extra costs when films go over budget or are not completed on time. Suppose that Soames is considering insuring the production of a movie and feels there is a 0.65 chance that his company will make $80,000 on the deal (i.e., the production will be on time and not exceed budget). He believes there is a 0.35 chance that the movie will exceed budget and his company will lose $120,000, which would have to be paid to complete production. Soames could pay a movie industry expert $5,000 for an evaluation of the project’s success. He believes that the expert’s conclusions are true 90% of the time. What should Soames do?

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