A First Course in Probability (10th Edition)
10th Edition
ISBN: 9780134753119
Author: Sheldon Ross
Publisher: PEARSON
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Myrtle Air Express decided to offer direct service from Cleveland to Myrtle Beach. Management must decide between a full-price service using the company’s new fleet of jet aircraft and a discount service using smaller capacity commuter planes. It is clear that the best choice depends on the market reaction to the service Myrtle Air offers. Management developed estimates of the contribution to profit for each type of service based upon two possible levels of demand for service to Myrtle Beach: strong and weak. The following table shows the estimated quarterly profits (in thousands of dollars):
| Demand for Service | ||
| Service | Strong | Weak |
| Full price | $960 | -$490 |
| Discount | $670 | $320 |
1. Suppose that the probability of strong demand is 0.8 and the probability of weak demand is 0.2. What is the optimal decision using the
Optimal Decision:
- Use graphical sensitivity analysis to determine the range of demand probabilities for which each of the decision alternatives has the largest expected value. If required, round your answer to four decimal places.
if probability of strong demand is less than or equal to
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