"If something can go wrong, it will go wrong." This funny saying is called Murphy's law. Let's interpret this to mean "If something can go wrong, there is a very high probability that it will eventually go wrong."Suppose we look at the event of having an automobile accident at some time during a day's commute. Let's assume that the probability of having an accident on a given day is 1 in a thousand or 0.001. That is, in your town, one of every thousand cars on a given day is involved in an accident (including little fender-benders). We also assume that having (or not having) an accident on a given day is independent of having (or not having) an accident on any other given day. Suppose you commute 43 weeks per year, 5 days a week, for a total of 215 days each year. In the following parts, write each probability in decimal form rounded to three places. (a) What is the probability that you have no accident over a year's time? (b) What is the probability that you have at least one accident over a one-year period? (c) Repeat part (a) for a 10-year period and for a 30-year period. 10-year period 30-year period Repeat part (b) for a 10-year period and for a 30-year period.
"If something can go wrong, it will go wrong." This funny saying is called Murphy's law. Let's interpret this to mean "If something can go wrong, there is a very high probability that it will eventually go wrong."Suppose we look at the event of having an automobile accident at some time during a day's commute. Let's assume that the probability of having an accident on a given day is 1 in a thousand or 0.001. That is, in your town, one of every thousand cars on a given day is involved in an accident (including little fender-benders). We also assume that having (or not having) an accident on a given day is independent of having (or not having) an accident on any other given day. Suppose you commute 43 weeks per year, 5 days a week, for a total of 215 days each year. In the following parts, write each probability in decimal form rounded to three places. (a) What is the probability that you have no accident over a year's time? (b) What is the probability that you have at least one accident over a one-year period? (c) Repeat part (a) for a 10-year period and for a 30-year period. 10-year period 30-year period Repeat part (b) for a 10-year period and for a 30-year period.
"If something can go wrong, it will go wrong." This funny saying is called Murphy's law. Let's interpret this to mean "If something can go wrong, there is a very high probability that it will eventually go wrong."
Suppose we look at the event of having an automobile accident at some time during a day's commute. Let's assume that the probability of having an accident on a given day is 1 in a thousand or 0.001. That is, in your town, one of every thousand cars on a given day is involved in an accident (including little fender-benders). We also assume that having (or not having) an accident on a given day is independent of having (or not having) an accident on any other given day. Suppose you commute 43 weeks per year, 5 days a week, for a total of 215 days each year. In the following parts, write each probability in decimal form rounded to three places.
(a) What is the probability that you have no accident over a year's time?
(b) What is the probability that you have at least one accident over a one-year period?
(c) Repeat part (a) for a 10-year period and for a 30-year period.
10-year period
30-year period
Repeat part (b) for a 10-year period and for a 30-year period.
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