If ABC Corporation has following historical data about sales volume:  Years Sales Years Sales Years Sales Years Sales 2001 110 2006 99 2011 100 2016 110 2002 112 2007 101 2012 104 2017 111 2003 122 2008 95 2013 108 2018 109 2004 111 2009 98 2014 102 2019 114 2005 104 2010 96 2015 115 2020 112 Note: All the sale values are in thousands. Required: Which type of forecasting approach is suitable for this type of data? Which forecasting technique is best to employ in order to forecast the above data? And also define the suggested technique. Calculate the predicted values by employing the discussed technique in part (b) on the above data.

2. Given the following data, use exponential smoothing with a = 0.2 and a = 0.5 to generate forecasts for periods 2 through 6. Use MAD and MSE to decide which of the two models produced a better forecast. Period Actual Forecast 1 15 17 2 18 3 14 4 16 5 13 6 16

Font Paragraph Styles Question 3 Consider the following from an estate agent's business nationally: Month Houses Sold Jan Feb Mar 380 360 390 Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct 400 390 380 394 454 460 460 Nov Dec 430 370 a) Calculate the three point moving averages (quarters) and seasonal variation for the above data b) Define moving averages and how they're useful in forecasting (use Harvard referencing) c) At races, your horse, White Rum, has a probability of 1/20 of coming 1st, 1/10 of coming 2nd and a probability of 4 in coming 3rd. First place pays $5,000 to the winner, second place $4,000 and third place $1,350. Hence, is it worth entering the race if it costs $1050?

9) Gasoline sales Times Series   week sales (1000s of gallons 1 17 2 21 3 19 4 23 5 18 6 16 7 20 8 18 9 22 10 20 11 15 12 22   With the above gasoline time series data, show the exponential smoothing forecast using alpha = 0.1 i)Applying the MSE measure of forecast accuracy, would you prefer a smoothing constant of Alpha= 0.1 or alpha=0.2 for the gasoline sales time series? ii)Are the results the same if you apply MAE as the measure of accuracy? iii)What are the results if MAPE is used?

Don't use Ai

Period 1 2 3 4 5 New Accounts Period 201 215 212 229 236 6 7 8 9 10 New Accounts Period 233 249 253 254 268 11 12 13 14 15 New Accounts 282 276 281 289 311

Use exponential smoothing with trend adjustment to forecast deliveries for period 5. Let α = 0.1, β = 0.2, and let the initial trend value be 4 and the initial forecast be 200 (both are given in the table).    (a) Complete the table below and to predict the demand for Period 5 (See image).                         Show the calculations for the demand for Period 2.    (b) Based on the actual demands of the first 4 periods forecast the demand for period 5 using the linear regression method.       (c) Which method performs better based on the actual demand for period 5? Why do you think so?

Answer this using excel on a spreads

What is Use a naive method to make a forecast?

14. The demand for Krispee Crunchies is experiencing a decline. The company wants to monitor demand for this product closely as it nears the end of its life cycle. The following table shows the actual sales history for January to October. Generate forecasts for November to December, using the trend projection with regression method. Looking at the accuracy of its forecasts in the Trend Projection Worksheet, as well as the other statistics provided, how confident are you in these forecasts for November to December? Month January February March April May June Sales 890,000 800,000 825,000 840,000 730,000 780,000 Month July August September October November December Sales 710,000 730,000 680,000 670,000