(i) Let p be the probability that an O-ring seal fails on a flight. What distribution is appropriate to describe the failure or non-failure of a particular O-ring seal on a particular flight? (Ensure that you define the corresponding random variable appropriately.) (ii) A reasonable estimate of p is 3/46≈ 0.065. Explain where this number comes from. (iii) It is suggested that an appropriate model for the number of O-ring seals that fail on a particular flight might be a binomial distribution B(6, p). What assumptions are made by using this model? In your opinion, is a binomial model appropriate? Briefly justify your answer.

MATLAB: An Introduction with Applications
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Chapter1: Starting With Matlab
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(a) In 1986, the US Space Shuttle Challenger tragically exploded in flight.
This accident was caused by the catastrophic failure of rubber 'O-ring'
seals that linked segments of the rocket boosters together. There were
six O-ring seals in Challenger (and all other Space Shuttles at the
time). Table 1 shows the numbers of O-ring seal failures that had
occurred on each of 23 previous Space Shuttle flights.
Table 1 Number of O-ring seal failures
Number of failed O-rings 0 1 23 4 5 6
Number of flights
16 5200 0 0
(i) Let p be the probability that an O-ring seal fails on a flight. What
distribution is appropriate to describe the failure or non-failure of a
particular O-ring seal on a particular flight? (Ensure that you
define the corresponding random variable appropriately.)
(ii) A reasonable estimate of p is 3/46~ 0.065. Explain where this
number comes from.
(iii) It is suggested that an appropriate model for the number of O-ring
seals that fail on a particular flight might be a binomial
distribution B(6, p). What assumptions are made by using this
model? In your opinion, is a binomial model appropriate? Briefly
justify your answer.
(iv) Use Minitab to obtain a table containing both the p.m.f. and c.d.f.
of the B(6, p) distribution with p = 0.065. (Do not change the
number of decimal places of the values obtained from those
provided by Minitab.)
(v) Use the information in Table 1 and the solution to part (a)(iv) to
complete the following table, giving your values rounded to three
decimal places.
Number of failed O-rings Observed proportion Probability
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Comment briefly on how close the observed proportions of flights
on which 0, 1, 2, ..., 6 O-ring seals failed are to those predicted by
the binomial model. What does this suggest about the
appropriateness, or otherwise, of the binomial model?
Transcribed Image Text:(a) In 1986, the US Space Shuttle Challenger tragically exploded in flight. This accident was caused by the catastrophic failure of rubber 'O-ring' seals that linked segments of the rocket boosters together. There were six O-ring seals in Challenger (and all other Space Shuttles at the time). Table 1 shows the numbers of O-ring seal failures that had occurred on each of 23 previous Space Shuttle flights. Table 1 Number of O-ring seal failures Number of failed O-rings 0 1 23 4 5 6 Number of flights 16 5200 0 0 (i) Let p be the probability that an O-ring seal fails on a flight. What distribution is appropriate to describe the failure or non-failure of a particular O-ring seal on a particular flight? (Ensure that you define the corresponding random variable appropriately.) (ii) A reasonable estimate of p is 3/46~ 0.065. Explain where this number comes from. (iii) It is suggested that an appropriate model for the number of O-ring seals that fail on a particular flight might be a binomial distribution B(6, p). What assumptions are made by using this model? In your opinion, is a binomial model appropriate? Briefly justify your answer. (iv) Use Minitab to obtain a table containing both the p.m.f. and c.d.f. of the B(6, p) distribution with p = 0.065. (Do not change the number of decimal places of the values obtained from those provided by Minitab.) (v) Use the information in Table 1 and the solution to part (a)(iv) to complete the following table, giving your values rounded to three decimal places. Number of failed O-rings Observed proportion Probability 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Comment briefly on how close the observed proportions of flights on which 0, 1, 2, ..., 6 O-ring seals failed are to those predicted by the binomial model. What does this suggest about the appropriateness, or otherwise, of the binomial model?
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