Given the actual demand for years 2013/14, calculate the total forecast for year 2015, as well as the forecast units for each quarter of 2015. For your calculations use the principles of trend and seasonality. List five figures, as follows: Total, Q1, Q2, Q3, Q4   Quart. Year 2013 % Year 2014 % Year 2015 % 1 16   20       2 33   34       3 58   70       4 33   32

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A Use a simple moving average model. Experiment with the models using five weeks and three weeks past data. 3 week MA Week ATL BOS CHI DAL LA TOTAL 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 5 week MA Week ATL BOS CHI DAL LA TOTAL 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 B evaluate the forecast that would have been made over the 13 weeks using overall mean absolutely deviation, mean absolute percent error, and tracking signal as criteria.

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Use simple exponential smoothing with a -0.8 to forecast electric scooter sales at Guelph- Humber Inc. for July. Assume that the forecast for May was for 45 electric scooters. Round your answer to 1 decimal Electric Scooter Sales Month May 42 June 47 July 45 August 40 Weekly demand for medical masks for the last five weeks at Chopper Drug Store has been as follows: 92, 96, 100, 100 and 102 (listed from the oldest to most recent). Suppose a naive forecast was used to forecast demand. What would the MAD be for this situation? Enrollment in a particular Yoga class at Guelph Fitness Centre for the last five months has been 80, 86, 88, 88 and 90(listed from the oldest to most recent). Suppose a two-month mov average was used to forecast enrollment. What would the MSE be for this situation?

Consider the following from an estate agent’s business nationally:   Month Houses Sold Jan 380 Feb 360 Mar 390 Apr 400 May 390 June 380 July 394 Aug 454 Sep 460 Oct 460 Nov 430 Dec 370     Calculate the three point moving averages (quarters) and seasonal variation for the above data   Define moving averages and how they’re useful in forecasting (use Harvard referencing)                                                                     At races, your horse, White Rum, has a probability of 1/20 of coming 1st, 1/10 of coming 2nd and a probability of ¼ in coming 3rd. First place pays $5,000 to the winner, second place $4,000 and third place $1,350. Hence, is it worth entering the race if it costs $1050?                          Your company plans to invest in a particular project. There is a 40% chance you will lose $3,000, a 45% chance you will break even, and a 15% chance you will make $5,500.…

The following represents the actual demand and two different sets of forecasts using different methods. Compute the MAD for each forecasting method and determine the best method for this set of data. Year-Qtr Actual demand Forecast methos 1 MAD1 (A-F) Forecast Method 2 MAD2 (A-F) 2020-3 98 97 89 2020-4 108 110 106 2021-1 83 68 70 2021-2 100 101 102 2021-3 95 86 87 2021-4 90 94 92 2022-1 71 68 72 2022-2 104 105 106 2022-3 84 91 88 2022-4 80 93 91 2023-1 78 68 70 2023-2 120 118 122

The number of cases of merlot wine sold by the Connor Owen winery in an eight-year period is as follows: YEAR CASES OF MERLOT WINE 1 270 2 356 3 398 4 456 5 358 6 500 7 410 8 376 Using an exponential smoothing model with an alpha value of 0.20, estimate the smoothed value calculated as of the end of year 8. Use the average demand for years 1 through 3 as your initial forecast for year 4, and then smooth the forecast forward to year 8. Note: Round your intermediate calculations and final answer to the nearest whole number.

Below is a table containing data on product demand for the most recent three months along with the forecasts that had been made for those three previous months. Calculate the MAE (or MAD). Month Demand Forecast 1 308 310 2 388 390 3 344 342

2. Given the following data, use exponential smoothing with a = 0.2 and a = 0.5 to generate forecasts for periods 2 through 6. Use MAD and MSE to decide which of the two models produced a better forecast. Period Actual Forecast 1 15 17 2 18 3 14 4 16 5 13 6 16