Explain the Graphic method of trend estimation in a time series and give its nmerits and demerits.
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- For each of the below ACF plots which are obtained for a time series data of 4 different variables of interest: a) Explain the ACF plot. b) Describe what the raw data is likely to look like over time. c) What kind of variable is this plot likely to characterise (e.g., stock prices, exchange rates, temperature, etc.)?Explain the different factors that account for fluctuations in time series data5. Management of a home appliance store wants tounderstand the growth pattern of the monthly sales of a new technology device over the past two years.The managers have recorded the relevant data inthe file P13_05.xlsx. Have the sales of this devicebeen growing linearly over the past 24 months? Byexamining the results of a linear trend line, explainwhy or why not.
- The following table contains yearly data on the price of beef from 2022 to 2024: Year Price of Beef ($/Kg) 3 5 8 2022 2023 2024 Forecast the price of chicken for 2025 using the following methods: 1. A 3-Year moving average method; 2. A simple exponential smoothing method (use a=0.5); 8. A simple linear trend model..A new, miracle diabetes drug that diminishes major symptoms of diabetes has been approved by the FDA. Health care professionals and researchers believe that the new drug will prolong lifespan of diabetes patients. If the population is in steady state and the incidence is constant, what will the effect of this new drug be on the prevalence of diabetes in the population? Explain.12) The following results are an autoregression for US Exports to Mexico where the dependent variable is the lagged value of US Exports. a) Fill in the table b)Based on these regression results, what is your forecast of US Exports to Mexico for March 2005? c) Which of the two forecasts do you think is more accurate? Explain.
- What year is the title of the grapth (image attached) most likely to be referring to when it says the future (Likelihood of industries becoming automated in the future")?If a forecaster wanted to choose a forecasting model that avoided having a large forecasting error in any given period, which error metric should they use when evaluating their forecasting options? CFE O AFE MAD MAPE O MSEIn Table L-1, the total value of imports of Indonesian goods and services from China for the 2010-2019 period is reported on a quarterly basis. With this data you are asked to analyze it with the Trend model and Seasonal Index. Question: a. Calculate a moving average with the average period length of 4 or MA (4) [why four?] And put the results in a column. Beware of selecting the rows to place the average result. b. Calculate the moving average with the length of the average period is 2 from the data in column MA (4) and the result is given the symbol MA (2x4) and the result is placed in a column. Beware of selecting the rows to place the average result. c. Calculate the ratio to the Moving Average (Y / MA (2x4)) and place it in a new column! d. Calculate a seasonal index and interpret the results! e. Create a Deseasonalized data series and place it in a new column! f. Plot the Dessasonalized data series and read the long-term movement patterns of data! Remember that understanding of…
