Example 2.19. Consider men who need to undergo a complicated surgery. The probability that they will survive for a year following surgery is only 50%. If they do survive for a year, then they are fully cured and their future mortality follows the pattern of general population. Suppose that for the general population, we have l60 = 89, 777, l61 89, 015, and l70 = 77, 946. Calculate probabilities that (1) a man aged 60 who is just about to have surgery will be alive at age 70, (2) a man aged 60 who had surgery at age 59 will be alive at age 70.

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Example 2.19. Consider men who need to undergo a complicated surgery.
The probability that they will survive for a year following surgery is only
50%. If they do survive for a year, then they are fully cured and their
future mortality follows the pattern of general population.
Suppose that for the general population, we have l60 = 89, 777, l61 =
89, 015, and l70o =
77,946.
Calculate probabilities that
(1) a man aged 60 who is just about to have surgery will be alive at
age 70,
(2) a man aged 60 who had surgery at age 59 will be alive at age 70,
and
(3) a man aged 60 who had surgery at age 58 will be alive at age 70.
Transcribed Image Text:Example 2.19. Consider men who need to undergo a complicated surgery. The probability that they will survive for a year following surgery is only 50%. If they do survive for a year, then they are fully cured and their future mortality follows the pattern of general population. Suppose that for the general population, we have l60 = 89, 777, l61 = 89, 015, and l70o = 77,946. Calculate probabilities that (1) a man aged 60 who is just about to have surgery will be alive at age 70, (2) a man aged 60 who had surgery at age 59 will be alive at age 70, and (3) a man aged 60 who had surgery at age 58 will be alive at age 70.
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