Determine the Running Sum of Forecast Errors (RSFE), the Mean Absolute Deviation, MADt-1,and the Tracking Signal(TS) at the end of each period.  Let the initial MADt-1   for period 0 be equal to 2.

Practical Management Science
6th Edition
ISBN:9781337406659
Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Chapter13: Regression And Forecasting Models
Section13.7: Exponential Smoothing Models
Problem 28P: The file P13_28.xlsx contains monthly retail sales of U.S. liquor stores. a. Is seasonality present...
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4-Forecasting using Exponential Smoothing 

The first five periods of demand data are shown  in the following table .Let the smoothing coefficient, alpha, equal 0.2.Compute the exponentially  smoothed  forecasts for periods one through four .Initialize  the procedure  with a forecast value for   period  one  of 37. 

Period    Aggregate Demand    Forecast demand 

0                      -                                  - 

1                     38                              37 

2                     42 

3                     40 

4                     36 

5                     42 

 

Determine the Running Sum of Forecast Errors (RSFE), the Mean Absolute Deviation, MADt-1,and the Tracking Signal(TS) at the end of each period. 

Let the initial MADt-1   for period 0 be equal to 2. 

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