Describe and evaluate the method of forecasting based on a time series analysis when a trend is present
Q: Discuss Qualitative forecasting technique. Explain the situations where we use Qualitative methods.…
A: Forecasting is the process of making assumptions of the future on the basis of past and present data…
Q: How do exponential smoothing advantages have over moving averages as a forecasting tool?
A: The advantages of exponential smoothing as a forecasting method over operating averages are as…
Q: involve
A: The answer to this question is true.
Q: Explain why forecasting devices such as moving averages, weighted moving averages, and exponential…
A: The average is going The prediction is increased and n is flat, but less susceptible. It provides an…
Q: A. Forecast sales in August using the 3-month moving average method. B. Forecast sales for the month…
A: Forecasting is the process of estimating the funture demand using the previous or historic data and…
Q: In your own words, explain adaptive forecasting.
A: Forecasting is the term which is defined as the technique that uses the data which is historical in…
Q: Explain the trade off of responsiveness in a time series forecasting system
A: In return for improvements on other issues, Tradeoff is a situation-based technique that entails…
Q: Explain what is seasonality and how forecast is done using data that has seasonality
A: In time series analysis, seasonalities are regarded as repeated up / down cyclic patterns in serial…
Q: Explain why forecasts are generally wrong.
A: Forecasting is used to predict future changes or demand patterns.
Q: State and explain three methods that are used to determine the accuracy of any given forecasting…
A: To be determined: three methods that are used to determine the accuracy of any given forecasting…
Q: Explain what assumptions do qualitative forecasting systems make
A: Qualitative prediction systems make the following assumptions:
Q: Compute a 3-month weighted average forecast for months 4 through 9. Assign weights of 0.55, 0.33 and…
A: Forecasting is a technique used to predict future outcomes on the basis of past data. There are…
Q: What does the term biased mean in reference to a particular forecasting technique?
A: The forecasting techniques are used for predicting the future demand and sales of the product. The…
Q: State and describe the steps involved in developing a forecasting system
A: To be determined: the steps involved in developing a forecasting system
Q: If the Tracking Signal for your forecast was consistently positive, what could you then say this…
A: If the tracking signal of the forecast is always positive, then it is bias and consistently too low.…
Q: Briefly describe the steps that are used to develop a forecasting system.
A: Forecasting is the primary function for predicting the future using the available data to make the…
Q: Explain the similarities and differences between quantitative forecasting and qualitative…
A: Forecasting refers to the process of making predictions for the future using past and present data.…
Q: Three popular measures of forecast accuracy are:a) total error, average error, and mean error.b)…
A: Forecast accuracy is important because it ensures the reliability and validity of data. Forecasting…
Q: Which of the following concepts explain why we tend to make errors in affective forecasting?
A: Affective forecasting refers to the prediction of future events on the basis of a current emotion.
Q: Explain what ex-post and ex-ante forecasts are, and how one can evaluate the accuracy of forecast of…
A: Ex Post Forecast, Ex Ante Forecast Ex post is forecasting using data that has been collected after…
Q: How do we measure accuracy of a forecasting model?
A: Step1:Forecasting models are tried and tested frameworks of historical data which helps in…
Q: Identify and briefly explain the two primary approaches to forecasting.
A: Forecasting is a method that uses historical data as inputs to generate predictions that can be used…
Q: Forecasting time horizons include:a) long range. b) medium range.c) short range. d) all of the…
A: Forecasting is that of the method by that managers make estimates about future events. It's…
Q: What method would you choose of forecasting technique, which requires subjective inputs obtained…
A: Forecasting is technique which uses past data in order to predict future trends. It is mainly used…
Q: The accompanying dataset provides data on the monthly usage of natural gas (in millions of cubic…
A: Given data is Alpha = 0.6 Gamma = 0.8
Q: State the assumptions made when using a time series forecasting techniques
A: Numerous estimates are taken in statistical analysis.
Q: Explain the term forecasting with least squares
A: Forecasting is a way of making a broader basis about the coming supported by facts. It can be used…
Q: You have a data set that includes time period and past sales data, and you want to use a time series…
A: Ans// D) Weighted moving average Time series forecasting makes the prediction about the future by…
Q: our manager is trying to determine what forecasting method to use. Based upon the following…
A: first we put the value on excel sheet then applying weighted moving average formula which shown in…
Q: What are the issues associated with qualitative forecasting, and how are these overcome? Provide…
A: Qualitative forecasting is a strategy for making forecasts about an organization's funds that…
Q: All the following are techniques used in quantitative forecasting except. A. Regression analysis B.…
A: Forecasting refers to the approach of making predictions on the basis of present and past…
Q: Qualitative forecasts and causal forecasts are not particularly useful as inputs to inventory and…
A: Qualitative forecasts and casual forecasts are not specifically helpful as inputs to the inventory…
Q: Which time-series forecasting method works best if the company assumes that product demand will…
A: Forecasts are a basic input in the decision processes of operations management because they provide…
Q: mon forecasting techniques.
A: It is possible to describe forecasting as a method of making predictions about the future based on…
Q: Your manager is trying to determine what forecasting method to use. Based upon the following…
A: In exponential smoothing, the smoothing constant is used to forecast the demand for the next period…
Q: Define time-series forecasting model and give examples.
A: Forecasting is the process of making assumptions of the future on the basis of past and present data…
Q: Forecasts are generally wrong.a. Why are forecasts generally wrong?b. Explain the term “wrong” as it…
A: Forecasting generally means predicting or estimating something for future events. It is also about…
Q: What is seasonality?How do we forecast using data that has seasonality?
A: Seasonality in time series data is the occurrence of repetitive up and down cycles in series values…
Q: Identify and explain the areas other than mentioned where the Hard Rock Cafe could use forecasting…
A: Hard Rock Cafe, Inc. is a chain of subject eateries established in 1971 by Isaac Tigrett and Peter…
Q: Generate forecasts for data with diff erent patterns, such as level, trend, and seasonality and…
A: Solution Introduction with Generate Forecasting for data Forecasting is a logical extension of the…
Q: A)- Explain the calculation method for the Naive Forecast model. B) If at the end of every month…
A: Forecasting the values in advance helps to reduce the cost, and increase profits by reducing wastage…
Q: State and explain the weakness of standard forecasting technique in forecasting approaches
A: To be determined: the weakness of standard forecasting technique
Q: Discuss why are forecasts generally wrong
A: Analysts' forecasts of future commodity needs are frequently incorrect for the reasons stated:
Q: Explain why such forecasting devices as moving averages, weighted moving averages, and exponential…
A: Forecasting is the anticipating the future demand considering the historical data. Following are the…
Q: Explain how the technology of forecasting can be improved
A: Forecasting is a long-term and short-term activity that the company engages in on a regular basis.…
Q: a. Calculate the simple three-month moving average forecast for periods 4 to 12.
A: Since you have asked multiple questions, we will solve the first question for you. If you want any…
Q: What does the term "adaptive forecasting" mean?
A: Forecasting is nothing more than forecasting patterns and making potential forecasts based on…
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- Under what conditions might a firm use multiple forecasting methods?The file P13_42.xlsx contains monthly data on consumer revolving credit (in millions of dollars) through credit unions. a. Use these data to forecast consumer revolving credit through credit unions for the next 12 months. Do it in two ways. First, fit an exponential trend to the series. Second, use Holts method with optimized smoothing constants. b. Which of these two methods appears to provide the best forecasts? Answer by comparing their MAPE values.The Baker Company wants to develop a budget to predict how overhead costs vary with activity levels. Management is trying to decide whether direct labor hours (DLH) or units produced is the better measure of activity for the firm. Monthly data for the preceding 24 months appear in the file P13_40.xlsx. Use regression analysis to determine which measure, DLH or Units (or both), should be used for the budget. How would the regression equation be used to obtain the budget for the firms overhead costs?
- The owner of a restaurant in Bloomington, Indiana, has recorded sales data for the past 19 years. He has also recorded data on potentially relevant variables. The data are listed in the file P13_17.xlsx. a. Estimate a simple regression equation involving annual sales (the dependent variable) and the size of the population residing within 10 miles of the restaurant (the explanatory variable). Interpret R-square for this regression. b. Add another explanatory variableannual advertising expendituresto the regression equation in part a. Estimate and interpret this expanded equation. How does the R-square value for this multiple regression equation compare to that of the simple regression equation estimated in part a? Explain any difference between the two R-square values. How can you use the adjusted R-squares for a comparison of the two equations? c. Add one more explanatory variable to the multiple regression equation estimated in part b. In particular, estimate and interpret the coefficients of a multiple regression equation that includes the previous years advertising expenditure. How does the inclusion of this third explanatory variable affect the R-square, compared to the corresponding values for the equation of part b? Explain any changes in this value. What does the adjusted R-square for the new equation tell you?The file P13_29.xlsx contains monthly time series data for total U.S. retail sales of building materials (which includes retail sales of building materials, hardware and garden supply stores, and mobile home dealers). a. Is seasonality present in these data? If so, characterize the seasonality pattern. b. Use Winters method to forecast this series with smoothing constants = = 0.1 and = 0.3. Does the forecast series seem to track the seasonal pattern well? What are your forecasts for the next 12 months?Scenario 3 Ben Gibson, the purchasing manager at Coastal Products, was reviewing purchasing expenditures for packaging materials with Jeff Joyner. Ben was particularly disturbed about the amount spent on corrugated boxes purchased from Southeastern Corrugated. Ben said, I dont like the salesman from that company. He comes around here acting like he owns the place. He loves to tell us about his fancy car, house, and vacations. It seems to me he must be making too much money off of us! Jeff responded that he heard Southeastern Corrugated was going to ask for a price increase to cover the rising costs of raw material paper stock. Jeff further stated that Southeastern would probably ask for more than what was justified simply from rising paper stock costs. After the meeting, Ben decided he had heard enough. After all, he prided himself on being a results-oriented manager. There was no way he was going to allow that salesman to keep taking advantage of Coastal Products. Ben called Jeff and told him it was time to rebid the corrugated contract before Southeastern came in with a price increase request. Who did Jeff know that might be interested in the business? Jeff replied he had several companies in mind to include in the bidding process. These companies would surely come in at a lower price, partly because they used lower-grade boxes that would probably work well enough in Coastal Products process. Jeff also explained that these suppliers were not serious contenders for the business. Their purpose was to create competition with the bids. Ben told Jeff to make sure that Southeastern was well aware that these new suppliers were bidding on the contract. He also said to make sure the suppliers knew that price was going to be the determining factor in this quote, because he considered corrugated boxes to be a standard industry item. Is Ben Gibson acting legally? Is he acting ethically? Why or why not?
- The file P13_22.xlsx contains total monthly U.S. retail sales data. While holding out the final six months of observations for validation purposes, use the method of moving averages with a carefully chosen span to forecast U.S. retail sales in the next year. Comment on the performance of your model. What makes this time series more challenging to forecast?Scenario 3 Ben Gibson, the purchasing manager at Coastal Products, was reviewing purchasing expenditures for packaging materials with Jeff Joyner. Ben was particularly disturbed about the amount spent on corrugated boxes purchased from Southeastern Corrugated. Ben said, I dont like the salesman from that company. He comes around here acting like he owns the place. He loves to tell us about his fancy car, house, and vacations. It seems to me he must be making too much money off of us! Jeff responded that he heard Southeastern Corrugated was going to ask for a price increase to cover the rising costs of raw material paper stock. Jeff further stated that Southeastern would probably ask for more than what was justified simply from rising paper stock costs. After the meeting, Ben decided he had heard enough. After all, he prided himself on being a results-oriented manager. There was no way he was going to allow that salesman to keep taking advantage of Coastal Products. Ben called Jeff and told him it was time to rebid the corrugated contract before Southeastern came in with a price increase request. Who did Jeff know that might be interested in the business? Jeff replied he had several companies in mind to include in the bidding process. These companies would surely come in at a lower price, partly because they used lower-grade boxes that would probably work well enough in Coastal Products process. Jeff also explained that these suppliers were not serious contenders for the business. Their purpose was to create competition with the bids. Ben told Jeff to make sure that Southeastern was well aware that these new suppliers were bidding on the contract. He also said to make sure the suppliers knew that price was going to be the determining factor in this quote, because he considered corrugated boxes to be a standard industry item. As the Marketing Manager for Southeastern Corrugated, what would you do upon receiving the request for quotation from Coastal Products?Explain the trade off between responsiveness and consistency in a time series forecasting system?