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Comprehensively state the criteria and process of selecting appropriate models for time series
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- help please answer in text form with proper workings and explanation for each and every part and steps with concept and introduction no AI no copy paste remember answer must be in proper format with all workingThe economy of Zambia evolves according to the equations of the Solow model. It has an investment rate of 0.5, a depreciation rate of 0.3, and the production function Y = AVK where A=9. Assume the capital stock in Year O is Ko = : 25. Project capital, GDP, investment, and depreciation for Years t=0,1,2,...,10 and graph a time plot of all four variables. Be sure to Graph the time path of investment, depreciation, and production functions with time (year) on the horizontal axis Graph all four on a single set of axes Make sure the legend of the graph makes it clear which variable is being graphed Label all axes You must draw your graph in Google Sheets, export it as a png file, and upload it in the upload question below.4. Suppose we have a summary of forecasting techniques calculation results for Gundam Auto Sales Inc. (in the prior item) as follows: Mean Next Standard Period Error Forecasting Method Used Forecast (MSE) 1.3-period UnWMA 10.42 3.24 2.4-period UnWMA 10.38 3.51 3.3-period WMA 10.83 3.03 4. Simple Exponential Smoothing 5. Trend Projection 8.24 5.04 11.43 1.16 a. Which among the techniques is the most reliable? b. What does the result of the most reliable technique say?
- In the trend model Tt = b0 + b1*Timet, suppose that b1 > 0. Is the series expected to grow or decline in future periods? Does this mean that the series grow or decline with certainty in every period?A materials engineer wants to understand the relationship between the strength of plastic cases and the temperature at which the strength measurements were made. The engineer collects several samples from the manufacturer and records the following observations. Using the data below and what you have learned in Forecasting, determine the following (use four decimal places for values): 1) Which is the response variable? 2) What would be the value of the coefficient of determination between the two variables? 3) What would be the strength of the plastic if the temperature was 210? Sample Temperature Strength 1 185 5150 183 5125 187 5123 188 5140 189 5195 189 5190 192 5150 195 5155 196 5156 198 5162 193 5172 196 5196 200 5063 202 5025 HENDAWNA 10 11 13 14question 8 macronecon
- The following table lists the number of daily visitors to the Web site of a new business during its first year. Month Number Month Number 1 2 3 4 5 6 5,400 5,372 5,265 5,250 5,289 5,350 7 8 9 10 11 12 5,600 5,520 5,280 5,400 5,448 5,500 a. Graph the data with a time-series plot using a vertical scale from 5,000 to 5,700.b. Graph the data with a time-series plot using a vertical scale from 4,000 to 7,000. c. Comment on the difference between these two time-series plots.Consider the ISLM model. If the government and central bank used a combination of expansionary fiscal policy and expansionary monetary policy, which of the following would occur? (a) There would be a rise in equilibrium national income and a fall in the equilibrium rate of interest. (b) There would be a fall in equilibrium national income and a fall in the equilibrium rate of interest. (c) There would be a rise in equilibrium national income and an unknown effect on interest rates. (d) There would be a fall in equilibrium national income and a rise in the equilibrium rate of interest.A researcher has a sample of 6 annual observations {94, 104, 102, 99, 111 and 107} for the CPI in country Z for the period 2015 to 2020, and wants to forecast CPI for the years 2021, 2022 and 2023. The researcher uses 3 different forecasting models: A, B and C. Model A is an AR(1) model with no drift and with an estimated autoregressive coefficient = 0.7. Model B is a MA(1) model with no constant and with an estimated MA coefficient = -0.4 (note the minus !). Model C is a random walk model with no drift. The error terms over the 2015-2020 period were estimated to have the values: {3, -1, 2, 4, -3, 1}. a. Compute the 2021, 2022 and 2023 forecasted values for the consumer price index based on the three models. Show the formulas and the details of your calculations, and explain all the related symbols. b. Suppose that the actual values of the CPI over the 2021, 2022 and 2023 were {108, 114, 105}. Calculate the Root mean square error of the three model forecasts over the 2021-2023…
- The Wall Street Journal’s website, www.wsj.com, reported the number of cars and light-duty trucks sold through October of 2014 and October of 2015. The top sixteen manufacturers are listed here. The sales information for all manufacturers can be accessed in a data file below. Sales data are often reported in this way to compare current sales to last year’s sales. Year-to-Date Sales Manufacturer Through October 2015 Through October 2014 General Motors Corp. 2,562,840 2,434,707 Ford Motor Company 2,178,587 2,065,612 Toyota Motor Sales USA Inc. 2,071,446 1,975,368 Chrysler 1,814,268 1,687,313 American Honda Motor Co Inc. 1,320,217 1,281,777 Nissan North America Inc. 1,238,535 1,166,389 Hyundai Motor America 638,195 607,539 Kia Motors America Inc. 526,024 489,711 Subaru of America Inc. 480,331 418,497 Volkswagen of America Inc. 294,602 301,187 Mercedes-Benz 301,915 281,728 BMW of North America Inc.…Please provide the correct answer along with the calculation. Do not use ChatGPT, otherwise I will give a downvote.Suppose we have the following time series data on variable Y (where t = trend): Y 100 2 120 3 160 200 Using simple exponential smoothing where x = 0.5, calculate the forecast of Y when t = 5. Report your answer to only one decimal point.
